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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Judith Williams who wrote (44815)	7/23/2001 12:22:04 PM
From: hueyone	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

10-fold increase in revenues applies to Forrester Research's estimates for B2B commerce in general--from $604b in 2000 to $6.3 trillion by 2004. Thanks for the excellent hunt report. However, I am extremely skeptical of using predicted growth rates from Dataquest, IDC or Forrrester Research. A year ago, Dataquest, IDC and Forrester Research were full of predictions like the one above for nearly every segment in technology. They could not have been more off the mark. I would also be extremely skeptical about any industry's ability to grow at near tornado rates from a trillion dollar base. Remember the old investment saw: "If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is too good to be true." Best, Huey

To: Judith Williams who wrote (44815)	7/23/2001 2:31:10 PM
From: EnricoPalazzo	Respond to of 54805

Netscape was in a tornado and had a lock on a mass market and we all know what happened there. I'm not one to downplay Microsoft's accomplishments or tenacity ;) but... Netscape never had a lock on a mass market--they had market share, which is necessary but insufficient. If they had had a lock, things would have been very different. HTML was pretty simple and standardize, and Netscape didn't manage to embrace and extend it quickly enough to become a Gorilla. The fact that Netscape was a rip-off of Mosaic should have shown everyone that browsers aren't that hard to clone. The point being, BEAS does not strike me as a fly-by-night operation with second-rate engineers, as NSCP always did.