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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (92685)	7/23/2001 12:30:55 PM
From: Sweet Ol	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

OPEC: Let's see if they can hold down the cheating! Downturn: Inventories of crude and products are on the rise, crude prices are dropping, day rates are softening and stock prices have tanked. Look at the long term prices of some of the companies and you will see the cycles. The cycles are caused by over responding to improved prices which leads to frantic exploration activity which leads to over supply which leads to lower prices, ad infinitum. In each cycle people always say "this time its different", but it never is different. Commodity cycles are as old as commodities. Having said that, you can certainly have cycles in a long term trend. A trading channel is very common. The tilt of the trading channel is influenced by the long term trend. But the channel is usually very broad allowing for multiple 100% profits and losses. Let us know what you decide to do and why. Best to all, JRH I think we are about 1/3 of the way into a down cycle.