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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: stockman_scott who wrote (39311)7/23/2001 3:13:00 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 65232
 
John Mauldin's favorite bond pro expects interest rates to decline thru the end of year

Mauldin has a widely read email letter at www.2000wave.com
he edits or contributes heavily to the Millenium Wave group

he says Asian suppliers are tripping over themselves, bringing down prices
those poor SOB's are racing to discount their currencies
or else face idle factories
sounds like a slowmotion redux of Asian Meltdown

he believes the US$ dollar will continue to remain strong until Feb2002
at that time European Union members will have to convert to euro currency
and then the black market in dollars will lose its lustre in Europe
so after January, US$ will continue to be strong versus Asians
but US$ will weaken slightly versus the Euro

(the Euro is a piece of cow dung)
sounds to me like he expects weakness until next winter/spring
just like I have been saying all along

Mauldin honestly expects mortgage rates to get into the 5% range in the next three years
the economy will have the poop the world bed for that to happen
wondering about real estate prices in the meantime
lower rates mean higher REprices, but lower rates come with declining employment

my Sagami guy quotes 20 American CEO's with little postive about Q3, Q4
tell these CEO's about the "2ndHalf Recovery" (what a joke)
he can be found on www.tonysagami.com
sharp guy with his Power Ratings that are still slightly negative
CNBC and other nitwits expect a rebound, cite evidence in support
that evidence is thin

if the economy slows further, then even energy will slow with it
since demand drops on a widespread basis
e.g. industries cut back, fewer people take vacations
but energy will likely lead out of the recession
especially electrical technology

hey Scott, is everyone at the beach?
/ jim