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Technology Stocks : AremisSoft Corporation (AREM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jules B. Garfunkel who wrote (583)	7/23/2001 5:00:21 PM
From: Sir Auric Goldfinger	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 683

There's a great answer to Q # 1: it's a central European word: SCHMEA.

To: Jules B. Garfunkel who wrote (583)	7/23/2001 11:12:18 PM
From: Bob Rudd	Respond to of 683

Jules, If Bulgaria was 95% or 60% or even 30% of AREM's prospective revenues, I'd be more willing to delve into the minitutiae, but it's only 5%. And it's been explained by the company, and investigated on site by Jacob's lawyers and by Neil Herman. Every company has minor lines of business that are at risk or have considerable uncertainties. If the probability of Bulgaria falling thru is 50% [which I doubt] you're still left with 97.5% of the biz intact. Take 97.5% of 1.33 [01 est] you get 1.30. Drop the growth rate to 25% from current organic 40% that nobody has really questioned, and you get 32.5 share price based on Peg of 1 that is below the group average. Erase Bulgaria entirely, do the same math on 1.26[.95*1.33] and you get 31.6. Are these differences worth hiring someone to unravel the semi-chaotic Bulgarian political/legal situation to fine tune an estimate for this minor line of business? Companies take business risks all the time. Some pay off way beyond expectations while other crash and burn. If you look at the big picture, you'll see AREM has a lot of opportunities in the space they play in, and their business model provides excellent margins on those opportunities. This Bulgaria obsession reminds me of the story of the blind men and the elephant wordfocus.com By looking only at one aspect with a jaundiced eye, it's seen as a fraud. Try to look at the whole elephant: irconnect.com or ftp://ftp.aremissoft.com/investors/investor.ppt This is a real company with real earnings and real opportunities....that there are uncertainties with some lines of business doesn't mean they're a fraud, it means they engage in normal business risk taking.