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To: ild who wrote (114034)	7/23/2001 7:39:41 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 436258

i try to have some geographical diversification....but i also own more SA gold shares than others. the economics are simply more compelling to me (fatter dividends, bigger reserves, in most cases clean balance sheets...). the political discount makes them simply the cheaper shares per oz. of reserves, and also in terms of cash flow.

To: ild who wrote (114034)	7/24/2001 10:58:50 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Detox The Dollar's Days Are Numbered By Peter Eavis Senior Columnist 7/24/01 7:28 AM ET URL: thestreet.com The dollar today reminds me of Cisco(CSCO:NYSE) back in early 2000. A derided minority had long predicted that the stock was careering toward an imminent collapse. But these people kept being proven wrong by the stock's powerful propensity to rally. But, as is their wont, the fundamentals finally caught up -- and Cisco crashed. In my view, the same fate awaits the dollar, with the currency's decline commencing by the end of this year. There's no way of telling the downside from here, because that all depends on policy reactions from the world's central banks. But make no mistake, it's time to grieve for the greenback. The chief reason is that the Fed is fast debasing the dollar by underwriting a heady expansion of money through its lowering of interest rates. Over time, an increase in the supply of dollars means a decrease in its value against other currencies, as long as those other currencies are not also being printed to equal or greater excess. In the three months to the end of June, U.S. M3, a money supply indicator, surged at a 14.8% annualized rate. At the moment, the foreign exchange market likes the fact that the Fed is opening the monetary floodgates; in fact, it's shunning the euro because the European Central Bank is perceived as being too tight and thus to blame for economic stagnation in the euro region. It's not clear, however, whether the market believes the Greenspan-led Fed is better than the ECB as a long-term economic manager. It may just be that it thinks Greenspan is more likely to cut rates again, an act that has buoyed the prices of U.S. bonds, which foreigners have been buying hand over fist. The strength of inflows appears to be chiefly based on this interest-rate gamble. After all, why would anyone buy paper of U.S. corporations based on their (truly appalling) long-term fundamentals? Perhaps as recognition of the fact that there's no deep optimism about corporate America, foreigners are choosing to pour vast amounts of cash into state-subsidized U.S. companies such as Fannie Mae (FNM:NYSE) and Freddie Mac (FRE:NYSE), both of which are horribly exposed to the U.S. housing bubble. This is an eerie replay of the emerging market craze for crony capitalist investments that preceded so many currency crunches in the Third World. So why a dollar crash sooner rather than later? Comparative interest rates give some strong clues. Paul Kasriel, Northern Trust's iconoclastic chief economist, calculates that real interest rates in the U.S. are just 0.5%, using an inflation rate of 3.25%, compared with 1.4% in euroland. Even Japan's real rate is higher -- at 0.63%. In fact, Kasriel's being too kind. Using the 4.5% inflation rate shown most recently by the Cleveland Fed's Consumer Price Index, real rates in the U.S. are actually negative to the tune of 0.75%. People are losing money just by holding dollars. How long can that last? Greenspan has made no public signal that he cares about inflation or the massive increases in money supply. If the dollar were to weaken, that still would put more upward pressure on inflation. Judging by his relaxed stance on inflation, Greenspan may not feel a strong need to intervene to support the dollar if it started sliding, which would encourage more selling. And if he did start talking up the greenback, it might be too late at that point. Expect a dollar dive by year's end.