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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (845)	7/23/2001 7:45:35 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95596

My apologies to all. My initial enthusiasm was dashed once I realized both bookings and shipments were still falling. Interestingly enough a stock like ANAD was not ultimately beaten down as much as I would have thought it should have been today. We still have a lot of buyers hoping for a turnaround before year's end despite the fact that almost all guidance throughout the sector is lower. This fact is reflected in the stock prices throughout the semiconductor industry where P/E's are looking very high indeed based on earnings expectations. RtS

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (845)	7/23/2001 9:57:50 PM
From: Ian@SI	Respond to of 95596

Cary, We really don't know what happened in the individual months. All we get to see is the 3 month moving average which may be seasonally adjusted in some unknown fashion. I haven't seen anything recently that explicitly states that it is or isn't seasonally adjusted. So I'm going from a 4 year old memory of investigating the data. Not a reliable indicator, unfortunately. In any case, it's quite possible that the raw numbers for the March and April bookings were in the $500M to $600M ball park. If so, for June Preliminary to come in at $700M+ implies that monthly actual bookings may have already started to rise. I don't know whether that's the case. Even if it is, doesn't mean that bookings will continue to rise short term. FWIW, [which is not much] Ian.