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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (49640)	7/23/2001 10:49:09 PM
From: Mark Marcellus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

OT: I don't think this counts as the "point of maximum pessimism". Analyst Recommendations as per Smart Money. EMC: Current 1 Mo 2 Mo 3 Mo Ago Ago Ago Strong Buy 7 9 8 7 Moderate Buy 8 10 10 11 Hold 12 7 7 5 Moderate Sell 0 0 0 0 Sell 0 0 0 0 JDSU: Current 1 Mo 2 Mo 3 Mo Ago Ago Ago Strong Buy 6 5 5 8 Moderate Buy 10 11 20 20 Hold 21 20 10 7 Moderate Sell 0 0 0 0 Sell 0 0 0 0 When the **** really hits the fan, you'll see the number of analysts covering the stock dropping, and you'll see some sell rec's. Also, I'd say the future of neither of these companies falls into the category of "sure thing". One of the things that makes AMAT so attractive is that their moat is so powerful. I just don't see that for EMC or JDSU.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (49640)	7/23/2001 11:00:01 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Hi Brian, When in college (GMI 1971-1976) I had the pleasure of meeting a 6th grade educated laborer who had become independently wealthy buying stocks and commodities.His name was Ted Warren and he authored "How to make the stock market make money for you". My room mate and I purchased an airline ticket for him to come out and teach us in a seminar.It was a watershed event for me as a 24 year old hustling college student. As markets turned sour we would call him up for support and he would chastise us for leveraging up and buying emotionally.Not to mention being blinded by greed and not selling as the clues of volume and fast price markup stages created blow-offs. His term he coined was to be an "Investolator" as in "long term speculator".A speculator who saw value first and foremost and then "Held with Confidence" for the inevitable fruit would be born as "insiders" who were a patient breed,never wanted to show their accumulation of great stocks at deep discounts. Ted would've loved the internet.But in reality,loving fear and hating greed still pay in aces, straights, and flushes. Over the years, I"ve missed cycles and had to hold for years,before another opportune cycle climax would shake my small cap stocks.This is why I learned to love the semi-cycle. I am still baffled as to why people don't acknowledge the wonderful cycles as one of this sector's most redeeming features. Oil takes 8-10 years. Real Estate can be slow.But Semi's are such a huge megatrend that even if you are wrong and blow it, you can still recover two years down the road. It just blows my mind that the semi cycle might need another 6 months to recover from an inventory glut!hehehe Heck ,if that's all it is, I'm happier than a pig in mud.You know what wireless will be quicker - TI confirmed it tonight- noone wanted to hear that,Intel said Microprocessors had stabilized - no one wanted to hear that either. Those dominant companies that have a giant marketshare are always the most reliable gages of the resolution of an inventory imbalance.Take a market where barriers to entry are less, like dram - the turning point for these is consolidation and shut downs - We're just seeing that evolve. In general, Morgan has it right - they'll all come at once.Everyone will back -off until they're out and then run to the equipment makers and then double order(I see it in the car businee all the time). Just a few are so well organized, they can workout the inventory glut and still have capital for"continuous improvement - Like Intel,Like GE - no one heard Jack Welch say they were spending more on digitization this year than last, because it saves so much.No one is hearing Larry Ellison take CRM to the small firms for $150,000 in 90 days- a complete new wave of routers in the making- good thing too so sunw and csco can sell off all that old slow crap they just wrote-off (and make a recovery of adjusted inventory on).gg This will all come out when the media decides to change the sentiment. I'm lucky I genuinely love to watch this history evolve and I can be patient - in reality it all works so fast compared to the past.gggg I guess I'm just getting older. I ramble as I do get tired of the noise polution.I do have a feel for your investment mentality and I just want to say, it is a pleasure reading your outstanding effort regarding news updates. I must however admit ,that in the midst of all your consciencious posts my favorite was why you bot JDSU.I don't have it verbatim but in a nut shell you bought it cause everyone else was selling.That puts you on top of the Hill ,Mr Brian.Bill Hueb just went long on a day nothing could be said that was positive. GZ loves to buy when everyone else is selling. Ted said it best: "To be a successful investolator you must learn to recognize what kind of action is discouraging and then form a contrary opinion.You must learn to ward off the pessimistic sentiment that is bound to rub off on you.WHEN YOU HAVE MASTERED THIS YOU WILL HAVE STEPPED OUT OF THE JUNGLE OF UNCERTAINTY.SELF-CONFIDENCE WILL HAVE ARRIVED!" This is not an easy thing to master - I find myself better able to step out of the jungle when I read the soundness of your posts. I will be always appreciative of your posts, as they are a fresh reaffirmation of my investment beliefs. Thanks and lets get rich!!! HEHEHEHE Bring it on!! Bob