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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (80779)	7/23/2001 9:13:33 PM
From: majaman1978	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

You might be right, but I found his stories on the speculative markets to be 100% correct. And remember 99.9% of the investing public doesn't do any TA.

To: mishedlo who wrote (80779)	7/24/2001 3:21:56 AM
From: Moominoid	Respond to of 99985

If you look at long stretches of daily or whatever frequency prices you will find a perfect random walk. I haven't been able to extract anything from the data using standard econometric techniques but a pure random walk. However, shorter segments of prices have clearly non-random walk behaviour. And that's where I think TA is most relevant.

To: mishedlo who wrote (80779)	7/24/2001 7:21:43 AM
From: s berg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Mish, Makkiel might respond that you are being rewarded because you add liquidity to the market by agile trading thereby making it more efficient. Since you are performing an important high risk function you deserve large rewards. Efficient market was written when Fidelity's funds were kicking butt. If you look at large institutional investors / the mutual fund industry Makiel's efficient market theory looks very compelling. Few beat the indexes long term.

To: mishedlo who wrote (80779)	7/24/2001 7:43:54 AM
From: s berg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Inefficient economists theory, Makkiel's theories are the basis for the huge amount of index investing now. Bogle, the father of index investing wrote his college thesis, the mission statement of vanguard, in Makiel's economic department. What a concept, make an investment in all companies regardless of the individual prospects of each company or the overall investment climate. Makkiel really has crafted an ivory tower concept. Neglects the dark, brutal nature of markets. What happens in the real world to investors who throw money into any investment no matter what. A truly efficient market devises ways to take their money from them. The paradox of Makiel's theory is that index investing only works if no one does it. As soon as there is massive index investing you have IMHO assured booms and busts. A bust is the market's Darwinian way of crushing weak passive investors.