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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (114099)	7/23/2001 10:26:18 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Well I'll go on record with an easy call, By early July of next year; (or before) the NDX will gain 70% from where it closed today. And that is no big deal as all it has to do is get back to where' it was Jan 23-24 of this year.NDX 2720 should not be to hard to make once we get going. -------------------- Jim

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (114099)	7/24/2001 3:11:51 AM
From: Agamemnon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Heinz, no doubt youve seen this From Jay Chen at 2001 collapse thread pages.prodigy.net & then authors response below: (if he's on the money (ie:US recovery beginning of 2002) then this will be 1st recession without major unemployment. But after reading your link to univ. of colo. long wave article I tend to doubt this recovery timeline unless of course it is an up blip. I guess the question is whether the US & japan can freefall simultaneously?) Here was his response ... QUOTE ... I am thinking to update it some time, but basically the same argument still apply today and probably will apply for next five to ten years. In order to predict the up and downs of US and Japanese economy, just take the movement of Dollar-Yen relation; this relation preceeds the real economies of both countries about a year or more. The prediction of 2000 economic slow down in US is based on the sharp drop of dollar at the summer of 1998. Another sharp drop of dollar in the summer of 1999 further sealed the fate of this slow down and the bust of ".COM" . The flat behavior of dollar, trading in the range of 105 to 110 Yens per dollar, for a long time since the summer of 1999 assures a prolonged flat bottom crawling of US economy since the bust of high tech stocks. However, the recovery of dollar since Nov. 2000 indicates that US economy will start to move up from the beginning of 2002. Japanese economy will, in the contrast, start to enter another recession in 2002 due to the sizable drop of the value of Yen from Nov. 2000. Europe does not matter very much since the capital accumulated in the former West Germany is mainly used up by former Eastern Europe countries and Russia, so will not help US very much. UNQUOTE Chugs, Jay