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Strategies & Market Trends : Trade/Invest with Options Jerry a Point & Figure Chartist -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frederick Langford who wrote (2875)	7/23/2001 11:45:29 PM
From: Dan Duchardt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5893

Fred, Since the same criteria is used each month, the positive progression of the B2B number, <April .44, May .48, June .54> should be interpreted as valid progression. Perhaps it will be perceived that way, and in the near term that may be what matters, but the logical extension of using the B2B metric is that the ratio could improve dramatically as the industry collapses (I'm not suggesting it will). $2M booked to $1M built is a ratio of 2.0, but no one would consider that healthy. The numbers can be massaged in many ways. One way is to note that compared to January the business booked in June is down 62%, while the build is only down 43%. I don't know the lead time for bookings to builds, but the numbers give a strong suggestion that the builds are not going to bottom until a few months after the bookings. Revenues are not going to turn upward until the builds start increasing, so until the bookings themselves start going up I can't see any progression. Dan