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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stak who wrote (48842)	7/24/2001 12:18:24 AM
From: Mani1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Stak re <<In 5 weeks where do you see the fan action happening? A few details of the scenario...>> Regardless of whoever is responsible, PC inventory channel is stuffed. The component guys have been pointing to lower unit volume, but AMD and INTC increased unit volume. Hopes such as windows XP, $300 tax credit, back to school and the rest will not materialize. Heck, who buys a PC because of a new OS? Even if someone did want a XP, they can just upgrade the software. Large percentage of corporations have also reduced discretionary spending which in most cases means PC upgrades so employees can check their email a second faster. No one is willing to pay the high premium for high MHz and the small price delta for high end CPU's confirms that. Intel will soon start leaking the bad news to analyst and the real fan action happens around the mid-quarter analyst meeting. With such a high PE and at best a very slow recovery, it can get ugly. It used to be that bad news for INTC was incorrectly misinterpreted as good news for AMD. Now it is the other way around. Quick disclaimer, I have no position on AMD, I am short INTC. I am also bearish on the overall tech market. Mani