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Strategies & Market Trends : MP - Market Pulse -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Shread who wrote (871)	7/24/2001 11:42:19 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1328

There is a 34-day fib turn date from the June 20 low/high pivot around that date. The June 20 pivot was a 21-day fib associated with the April 4 base low. There is a 34-day fib turn date on Thursday July 26 from the June 7 high which is a 21-day fib associated with the March 22 base low. Seasonality and monthly option-related cycles also coincide with the July 26/27 low area. The Value Comp/Russell 2000 usually has a sharp sell-off at the start of July after rebalance, and then again after options expiry. A sharp rebound at month end may occur according to the seasonal charts. Isn't the definition of a bull market one where the S&P 500 resides above the 200 day moving average? Isn't the definition of a secular bull market, as opposed to a cyclical bull market, one where the S&P 500 stays above the 200-week moving average (or the 4-year cycle average)? I believe the Dow Industrials will have a convergence of the 200-day and 200-week MAs by year end. I believe the Dow transports are already under the latter, but back above the 200-day MA. EDIT: Some also add the further condition that the 20-period and 50-period moving averages for the respective index has to be above the 200-period. The 55-day fib dates for the two base lows appear to be October 12 and October 25, calculating forward from July 26 and August 8, respectively. I'm only counting one holiday in between.