Hi west, Today is a typhoon day in Hong Kong. Well, not exactly, and not yet, because while the typhoon flag #8 is up (#1 – typhoon formed somewhere within 600 km of Hong Kong; #3 – coming, coming, say around 300 km; #8 all public transport, private businesses and financial markets shutdown, and street signs start to physically fly around, lopping heads off, literally), but as we are between one piece of cloud and another, there is no actual rain or even wind yet. We should get more typhoon days like today while the getting is still good.
This particular typhoon day I am having is a lot like the situation in the US financial market. I am waiting; just waiting.
My wife and I are stuck at home, reading, napping, movie watching, and talking on the phone. Our friends from the US, Taiwan, and Philippines spent some time on the phone with us today. We should have more typhoon days. As in the case a few weeks ago during my last typhoon day, I take the day off even though my work has nothing at all to do with Hong Kong, the location, weather, or its economy. I take the day off because it is fun to join everyone in taking a day off.
Psychological Profile A: The friend in the US is early retired in Hawaii, and feels all is just fine, except he wants to find a new girlfriend, and still shopping for real estate. He has taken some losses on the stock market and is eager to protect what is still salvageable.
Psychological Profile B: The friend in Taiwan is scion of a listed textile/banking/manufacturing and real estate conglomerate. “Jay, it is all over for Taiwan, and this time it is for real”. The “private jet and yacht” wealthy are not investing in Taiwan any more, and are simply moving capital to US and China, in a controlled descent in Taiwan. The “business” wealthy folks are moving capital to China, and because of capital controls on their China investment by the PRC government, these investors are physically relocating to China to live. The educated young are looking for jobs on the mainland. Early retired military officers are also taking up commissions in the mainland's armed forces. The economic and political storms are marked by bleakness and despondency, coloured doom.
Psychological Profile C: Another Taiwan friend who is pro-Taiwan, part of family that benefited much under Japanese rule, now controlling (you guessed it) banks, TV and phone companies, etc, also got a sounding from me. “The government is close to panic”.
Psychological Profile D: The friend in 'forever troubled' banana republic of Philippines commented, “it is fine here, everything is getting cheaper, and folks are more willing to work, and my business (packaging equipment and consumable distribution to beverage and food companies) is a necessity for local and SE Asia markets, and competitors are folding up tents”.
Psychological Profile E (Jay): “Oh, gad, it is going to be so bad, but let’s not forget that Crisis is my partner, and Volatility is my friend”. I think I am ready for anything likely to go down in the global financial market, but suspect that upon facing the reality of pulverizing-ly grinding decline or cataclysmic gap-down, even I will be silent, in awe of the spectacle, terrified at the commotion, and stunned by the screaming. Will I be making a short term bet at that moment? I do not know, until I know.
<<Even at DOW 7000, NAS 1000 - that is a market at historical fair value in a healthy economy>>
… while the truth of this statement should be obvious to the most casual of passing observers, but will take time for digestion, reflection, and then, regurgitation:0)
<< Ready for the party about to unfold in the coming one year period. This is it folks, we are at the start of the final big leg down>>
… Ok, I think I am ready, let the test begin. No, wait, wait, my calculator is out of juice … just hold on …
<<Let us hope that is the worst - the damage will be bad enough>>
… I write for fun. I invest for profit. I plan for disasters. I allocate for self-preservation. Despite what I write, I actually have no particular wish to be constantly tested (Since 1982, survived in good order: Crash 87, TianAnMen 89, Redchip Crisis 94, Asian Crisis 97-98, Softbank 99, Nasdaq Crisis 2000-?), but I also know, without a thorough and deep cleansing, we will suffer …
<<a long drawn out sideways recovery or if not even further downside after that sideways action>>
… and so I prefer my medicine strongest, but possibly more effective, regardless of the screaming, because screaming typically does not last for 16 or 20 years. As the good doctor Jim Black once quipped, "the bleeding eventually stops".
Chugs, Jay |
