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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (80852)	7/25/2001 12:47:23 AM
From: el paradisio	Respond to of 99985

I think, at first telecom companies must show some earnings improvement before networking sector will pick up. It make take 1-2 years IMO JNPR,NTAP may recover first. Looks like short term bottom for Dow, SPX and Nasdaq is close. Regards, el

To: t2 who wrote (80852)	7/25/2001 1:07:29 AM
From: TWICK	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Regarding your "bounce" question... 1. What's your time frame ? 2. Besides hoping for a talking head to tell that the sector has hit bottom, what info/data/etc. are you crunching to possibly determine a bottom and your risk/reward from that bottom ? This is where you need to factor time into the equation from question # 1. 3. LU is a mess and may take longer than you think for it to bounce 30 to 50%. With all that we know and all that you hopefully have already dissected, what makes LU attractive besides the fact that it's currently a total disaster. Amazing how the most widely held company in the 90's has gone so wrong in such a short time. Think about all the things that have to happen for LU to be the darling again, or even just cash flow positive. Yea. Yea. Yea. The CEO said this and that this morning on CNBC, but is it the right plan ? Are they doing all they can, as fast as they possibly can ? Time will tell. After that, how long will it take to show quarter over quarter revenue increases ? How long will it take for LU to be a competitive player again ? How long till it's the darling of Wall Street again? Will this be a quick or long and agonizing turnaround story ? Will it even be able to turn itself around after it has sold off the fiber assets, and whatever else it has to dump overboard with the tens of thousands of employees ? All things I would look at while you wait for the talking heads to tell you "It's OK. It can't get worse". Funny thing is that they've been playing that same broken record daily on CNBC since the NAZ failed to give us that New Year's rally in 2000. You know... the one we all expected and were guaranteed by the same talking heads in December 1999. My advice to you, is to ignore the talking heads. Roll up your sleeves and dig into all the info you can get about the telecom sector. It helps a bit if you work in that sector. I indirectly do, and it helps me formulate my views of the sector. Get dirty man. Soak it all up and really try to understand the sector as berst as you can. It can only help, and it's fun and educational too. Think about all the girls you'll impress with that savvy talk. After you have done your research and feel you have figured it all out, then turn on the TV and see what the talking heads have to say, and compare their "words of wisdom" against your research. You may have an orgasmic awakening and realize that they are exactly that... TALKING HEADS. But. Of course, you first have to get over your biggest fear. The fear of missing the "bottom". How about taking a step back and look at all of the segments in the telecom sector. Does it look like it will run away to the upside from you tomorrow ? Next week ? Next month, or the month after ? If not, then why worry about missing the bottom ? All just my thoughts. I could be wrong. After all. I'm not a talking head. So what do I know. Twick

To: t2 who wrote (80852)	7/25/2001 2:34:51 AM
From: exeric2	Respond to of 99985

I was reading your post about wanting to get long the telecom equipment stocks and thinking "this man likes playing with fire". Things don't turn around until they do. It's much safer to stick with the main trend that's already in existance rather than trying to anticipate. If you really are worried about being short here because its due for a rebound then you should start thinking about shorting biotech. The biotech index is down 37% from it high in April 2000 verses 60% for the nasdaq. The biotech industry has held up relatively well so far but it is only a matter of time before it caves, especially with the P/E its sporting. Doing that is much safer than trading against a known trend. May I suggest Chiron for your viewing pleasure. Clothed in a P/E of 636 it is sure to meet the fancy of any gentlemen of distinction who is of the shorting persuasion.

To: t2 who wrote (80852)	7/25/2001 4:51:21 AM
From: epsteinbd	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

SOME COMMENTS to your question, that do not contradict TWICK's substantiated, thus good, analysis : While we can easily have a bounce in the 30-50% range you mentioned by the simple effect of a new or positive or emotional correction of market sentiment, I do not sense that the Big Names of the industry can flash out orders of enough $ magnitude to restore sustained confidence in the near future, ie the middle of the fall.Thus you'd be mainly betting on human reaction to an overdone (overcooked) present situation. The only Co I'd follow closely in your list would be Ciena. However for myself, I prefer to concentrate on much smaller companies, those that have some great products, enough cash and/or backlog to last one year at least... and that can go bust, if nothing happens in the meantime, or boom if they get new orders even for small amounts, having thus a clear advantage over the big debt overridden names. Furthermore it beats me that those LU, NT and same, didn't see it all coming, which is not true of new companies who had to get beyond their IPO for scientific research purposes etc, with a natural hope that their unknown/untested products will get enough orders to keep them alive for awhile. Finally how much info did those Big Telecom Ceos need from Greenspan or anyone to know that their outfit could simply not continue to grow at the presupposed speed ? They were/are either blind or irresponsible, probably both. That's the reason I prefer not to trust them with money.JMHO. Epsteinbd

To: t2 who wrote (80852)	7/25/2001 8:15:27 AM
From: Boplicity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

The only once making a good base is CSCO. stockcharts.com[w,a]dbolnimy[dc][pb25!b50!b100!b200!a14.98!a24.12!f][vc60][iUc20!Ua12,26,9!Lb14!Lf!Lg!Lj[$spx]!Lp5,3,3] Still, it's going to be sometime till the group completes the base building process. B

To: t2 who wrote (80852)	7/25/2001 2:52:56 PM
From: HairBall	Respond to of 99985

NV: Congrats...you made the "cool posts" list... Regards, LG

To: t2 who wrote (80852)	7/25/2001 4:06:59 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

JDSU, CIEN, CSCO yes... LU no... NT who cares? Lucent is gonna die no integrated solutions, no bestinbreed product, plenty of residual ATT arrogance, and leadership that is stupid enough to attempt to bully a bad deal with Altera when they have no bargaining strength (even my Boston friend at Lucent thinks they are doomed) Uniphaz is coming back, way too strong IPO to languish ditto for CIEN, but these guys need orders, not pats on back Cisco will spring back because of strong brand, little else I would put a few on the comeback list: JNPR, NTAP, EMC, SUNW here is my honest assessment investors need to look elsewhere for some stunning returns with so much competition in IT generally, I look to the unusual like solar power, like wireless tower landlords like redundant electric generation to get off the grid dozens of bigname tech stocks are played by pros they ride them up, then ride them down they talk them up when down, they talk them down when up makes me tired just talking about their spindoctors congrats on your Cool Post, Paul you are now 4 behind me <ggg> / jim

To: t2 who wrote (80852)	7/25/2001 5:26:47 PM
From: Art Bechhoefer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

You should have included Corning (GLW) as a potential come back stock. Of all those mentioned, Corning has the lowest debt and some of the best technology. Plus, it now appears to be buying the Lucent interests in China, which is the fastest growing market for fiber optic networks. In this connection, Nortel recently got a contract with China on wireless equipment for China's rapidly expanding CDMA wireless networks. Nortel being a Canadian company does not carry the stigma of some American companies, which have to contend with some of the most anti-business foreign policy relations between the U.S. and China since the end of World War II. Lucent, due mainly to questionable management leadership, is a real basket case. Art Bechhoefer