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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (44905)	7/25/2001 4:05:00 AM
From: FaultLine	Respond to of 54805

A word to the wise: Anyone interested in the BEAS discussion here should absolutely make a point of also following the posts in the New Paradigm Investing thread at the Fool. The first post starts here: boards.fool.com Oh my gosh I am so excited I have not even read it yet. Judith Williams and Don Mosher have done a Gorilla Game analysis of BEA. Enjoy! Paul" Click on "New Paradigm Investing", "Threaded" to see a nice outline listing of the various message threads. --fl

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (44905)	7/25/2001 7:15:18 AM
From: Don Mosher	Respond to of 54805

I had a chance to listen to the BEA conference call on the strategic and comprehensive relationship with Intel. bea.com Coleman not only called it the most important announcement in BEA's history, but also made a direct comparison to IBM standardizing on Microsoft's OS, which implies a sea change in the strength of BEA's value chain. The intention is to greatly expand the market as Intel moves into high-end servers. The agreement included joint R&D and marketing. Also, the work with Intel begins with the Norwood and Zeon processors. Intel selected BEA because of its platform's superiority in clustering servers and the number of business applications that become available immediately to the OEM's. In responding to Mike's string of Thomas's comments, Paul Philp points out that the category in the tornado in the last three quarters is the BEA ebusiness platform, not the J2EE application servers. He emphasizes the same two points that Coleman made in the conference call: the back-end issues of QOS and clustering, which solve tricky problem and provide barriers to entry, and the business application components of the Platform, plus the number of EJB applications. Both the service functions of the BEA Platform and its component servers including business logic within its n-tier architecture, ( Portal, Personalization, Commerce, and Campaign Manager) are proprietary and based upon the open J2EE standard. Thus, the BEA eBusiness Platform is both open and proprietary, as well as controlling its architecture. boards.fool.com At least 15, possibly going to 25 by the end of the year, OEM's, including Compaq, Dell, Bull, Unisys, and NEC, have announced they will use the Intel Itanium 64-bit processor. However, the BEA agreement with Intel also means that BEA will work even more closely with them both technically and on joint marketing and bundling of the software with the servers. The BEA value chain continues to grow as OEM's cascade into offering high-end servers featuring Intel chips and the BEA Platform. These network effects will drive the tornado. Because Sun's Unix servers are competitive with the new Intel offering, iPlanet has little opportunity to grow its marketshare here. IBM's WebSphere faces similar issues in trying to stop BEA. Don

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (44905)	7/25/2001 12:17:09 PM
From: Pirah Naman	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

Another word to the wise... The conversation here has been great, and it may well be great at the fool. But we should all be vigilant in how we form conclusions about which writers to believe. Not because anybody is dishonest, but because well constructed prose is convincing, often regardless of its accuracy. If we lack a level of expertise in an area, we are handicapped in evaluating the expertise of others in that area. Be aware that even a true expert is likely to have a limited range of expertise, so if you see somebody argue eloquently about biotechnology, semiconductors, fiber optics and software, for example, you are probably seeing somebody who is eloquent! As much as we humans are wrong, we should maintain humility (pretty easy recently) and know that we are going to be wrong going forward. As will our fellow humans, however bumbling or eloquent they seem. Given this, seek a margin of safety. You can do this through valuation, or you can do this through digging deeper and placing less reliance on the writings of others. Or ideally, both. - Pirah