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Technology Stocks : Gemstar Intl (GMST) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (5142)	7/25/2001 7:48:45 PM
From: Baton	Respond to of 6516

Mike: Perhaps that news is what scared investors to mash the gem from $50 back down to $40. I don't know why it would affect us though. We are in the sweet spot with AOL, TW and T. I bought a little more today when it slipped under $40. I bet we even out around $45-47 and then move with the market. Baton

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (5142)	7/25/2001 8:38:03 PM
From: NY Stew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6516

I don't frequently repost another's opinion however I feel this one warrants an exception. From Yahoo Gemstar Club (not the public thread): Only 2 weeks ago Ms. Haas raised her sub numbers for GMST next year, and two days ago Michael Hurley of WitSoundView called GMST one of his best 10 stocks this year. I spoke to Ms. Haas in NY today, and Mr. Hurley in San Francisco also. Quite frankly I am appalled at the sloppiness with which Ms. Haas addressed her comments today. She did not call Gemstar for the sub numbers next year, and indeed Gemstar has no guidance at all on numbers of subs for 2002. As for her EBITDA multiple, one makes assumptions for a multiple, and in speaking with her she could not justify the low multiple for a company that is growing, normalized, 50%/year for the next three years. Equally of concern-- notwithstanding that only two weeks ago Ms. Haas issued a piece raising her GMST subs for next year-- are her comments about the switchover to digital cable/satellite. In a good conversation today with Ken Gawrelski of CIBC it surfaces that GMST's digital set-top box format completely escapes and is unaffected by Ms Haas' concern about the switch over to digital set top boxes. GMST, CIBC estimates, will have 29 million subs by q 4 2002-- none of them need the digital equipment to which MS. Haas refers relative to the SFA economic slowdown hit. As a buyside analyst of this company I am frequently concerned at how pivot points are exploited by analysts for reasons that do not bear the scrutiny of hard quantitative research. Ms. Haas cannot justufy her EBITDA multiple, makes comments about sub numbers that GMST has never sanctioned, and then makes comments about a slowdown in SFA set-top boxes that has nothing to do with GMST in the current two year environment going forward. Of equal interest is how only last Wednesday Merrill Lynch, after talking to Henry Yuen for a good length of time, comes out with an $80 12 month target, while Ms. Haas lowers her to $45. Indeed, a one quarter alleged slowdown (which no analyst I know confirms) in a company, Gemstar, which will probably be around for the next 80 quarters commented upon with a 9% price reduction in a year end target that differs wildly from the Street mean concensus of $98 is of additional concern to a buyside firm that owns stock in this company. Indeed, when I asked Ms. Haas "What if Murdoch gets DTV, what happens to your target of $45" she sated "Of course it would change." This is equity analysis? I think not, and which is why buyside firms almost never pay attention to analysts. I suggest that posters here do not either. clubs.yahoo.com