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Technology Stocks : METROMEDIA FIBER NETWORK (MFNX) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank Wechsler who wrote (1494)	7/25/2001 12:03:53 PM
From: MeDroogies	Respond to of 1983

I think, and again I'm just engaging in conjecture, that this industry (as a whole) is in disarray. There are alot of questions concerning glut, viability of fiber optic connectivity (in the short run), and financing. Whether any or all pertain specifically to MFNX is up to you to decide, based on available information. However, taken as a whole, the general malaise in the industry is going to effect all companies, and MFNX is going to be one of the larger tormented companies. It's hard to look at all the companies out there that entered this industry and say "they are all viable and going to make it". I don't think even Gilder would have promoted that concept. On the other hand, his optimistic vision is and was correct. The downturn doesn't make his comments or ideas wrong. Rather, they make them more real. The downturn is making the companies in this industry reassess themselves and how/what they do to make money. That's a good thing, in the long run, as the survivors will all be healthier, and offer better prospects, than if a shakeout hadn't occurred. Consider NOPT....look at their finances and see if they appear any more healthy than MFNX. I'd say not. Yet, they are trading at a price of 5. I'm sure there are many factors that support that price, but they have less revenue available, and as a % of that available cash, are losing more. In addition, their book value is far less than their stock price. They fare better in a FEW other categories....but enough to warrant a price of 5? There are many questions to be asked about what is going on in this industry. Schumpeter called the process this industry is going through one of "creative destruction". It's happening here in spades. The question becomes, is MFNX ultimately a winner? I'd say that it appears to have the power to survive and thrive that others don't. But again, that's just my opinion.

To: Frank Wechsler who wrote (1494)	7/25/2001 1:36:32 PM
From: A.L. Reagan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1983

can anybody explain why we seem to be falling through the floor?? As a fellow participant in the MFNX scratch-off lottery game aka perpetual call strike @ -0- (none of my tickets have matched so far), conjecture is that the bank loan consortium ainna gonna happen by 7/30, and people working on that know it, and there's some inside info getting into the trading dynamics. Also, nobody should use book value as any kind of guide for investing in a situation such as this unless you recalculate net realizable tangible book value by (a) deducting goodwill and other intangibles [most paid for with funny money] and (b) make a guesstimate of the NRV of fixed assets and see if any material adjustment is required from depreciated book value. I would not use raw #'s from Yahoo finance to make investment decisions. Others are certainly welcome to.