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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wallace Rivers who wrote (12854)	7/26/2001 12:21:40 AM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78552

After your post, Wallace, I looked at the stocks you mentioned. I'll pass on DIS. On the plus side, the stock is at lows, and it's always recovered. finance.yahoo.com DIS was a pick of Mike Burry and/or Jim Clarke at these low levels at least once before (if I recall correctly, and I'm not sure I am), and it worked out soon and favorably, also if I recall. Warren Buffett had dinner with Michael Eisner and there were rumors that Mr. Buffett was interested in purchasing Disney. That was somewhere last year (?) when DIS stock was trading about where it is now (?). (I'm not sure about this.) I see DIS as a co. that given enough time, will have new films or tv programs that will bring it (the stock) back into favor, and the stock will trade closer to its highs. OTOH... I stopped at the library this afternoon to look at Value Line's DIS history. Return of equity is steadily declining. And return on assets stinks over the past five years. I don't like what you pay for what you get, i.e. very high p/e. Book value is growing slowly, imo. (P/sales and p/book are low compared to past years though - a good sign) There could very well be a reason the stock is down and going lower. I'll pass for now (as I also wrongly did when Mike/Jim bought). If I read that Mr. Buffett is, or has, bought, then I'll reconsider the value of DIS's franchise and moat. MER might also work here. Difficult for me to figure. Have also to absent myself from my feelings about Mother Merrill - MER reminds me of the cartoon where one exec. says to another, "Our target market? We like the segment where you fool some of the people all of the time." -gg- Company has very good revenue growth. Stock could turn around if market turns. MER just manages so much money: by taking a haircut on a large number of dollars they wind up with a large number of dollars. (I am expecting this of Mellon - MEL - also.) Very high roe numbers. And, as is typical here, high d/e. I just can't make up my mind about MER now. Arrgh!!!! Ergo, I'll wait and reconsider when/if MER gets closer to its annual low. No opinion on SLB as a sell. I exited early and missed a lot of the big run up. I'm a buyer again in low 40's and below, if it gets there. I'll look at CMO. (Congratulations!! Patience rewarded.) re: ABN: yes, believe that some of the problem is with Argentina, from which ABN is trying to extricate itself. Also, maybe adjacent Brazil is a problem as well. Company prides itself on a world-wide reach, so I am expecting (hoping) that any regional issues are eventually overcome by having that diversity. regards, Paul S.

To: Wallace Rivers who wrote (12854)	2/19/2002 4:21:33 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78552

Fwiw, adding more to my small position in TMO today. Looks like lots of progress in simplifying their capital structure. Still very hard though to understand Thermo's mix of stable businesses and hi-potential stuff. I'll term it a GAARP stock at today's price. The stock might do well if stock market ever recovers. jmo.

To: Wallace Rivers who wrote (12854)	6/27/2002 1:30:44 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78552

I don't have much, but I'll trim back FSS, a stock discussed by me in '99 (and Jim Clarke, although I don't recall him saying he owned it). Decent company, but it just hasn't been able to capture the sales/earnings I would've expected for the time that I've held it. (In other words, I'm losing patience -g-). I'll add to my small TMO, whose price and future prospects appeal to me. finance.yahoo.com

To: Wallace Rivers who wrote (12854)	1/3/2003 12:14:25 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 78552

Wallace Rivers, fwiw, I sold a little TMO today. Company prospects are still good imo, but I want to trim back my position a little. I'm using the proceeds to buy HD which is down today based on it's lowered earnings forecast. I've suspected profit margins weren't sustainable at current rate. I just hope that Don Earl's comments about insiders' dealings with the company and HD's off-balance sheet and GAAP accounting ploys are reflected in the stock. I suspect they are not. And now that the spotlight's on HD, maybe further media reports will be forthcoming about these negative aspects (which would drive the stock even lower, I'd guess). Still, the company is a behemoth with financial resources to open 200 additional stores this year. Perhaps they are not so arrogant that they can't learn from Lowe's and work on their customer service too. biz.yahoo.com aside: Nice move recently in your old pick of CMO. And I can't see anyone calling those dividends skimpy. finance.yahoo.com