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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Petz who wrote (49013)	7/25/2001 6:16:45 PM
From: TimF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

CJ's main point is that Flash, like everything else is highly cyclical, but most would agree that the long term growth rate of the Flash Memory industry is at least as large as the CPU industry. What your opinion as to the posibility of this current severe downturn knocking out some of the other players in flash and helping AMD to gain market share in the long run? Tim

To: Petz who wrote (49013)	7/25/2001 6:56:21 PM
From: ptanner	Respond to of 275872

John, Re: "I'm not clear on whether the joint venture is owned equally by AMD and Fujitsu or who sells what percentage of it's output." I had hoped to find a nice slide of the flash market by segment (auto / cell phone / etc) and AMD/FASL product distribution. However, no such luck. I believe the same overall presentation also had a flash market share pie chart and FASL was about 28% with INTC about 26% so not much room for "others." From AMD's annual report (page 14), AMD's ownership portion of FASL is 49.992% and if FASL requires capital additions (ie. cannot implement its planned expansion through internal cash generation) then AMD would make a proportionate contribution; this happened during 2Q01 as noted in the CC and reflected the equipping of JV3. Hopefully someone else has/can find the flash market information. -PT

To: Petz who wrote (49013)	7/25/2001 7:35:06 PM
From: combjelly	Respond to of 275872

"he meant ... a lot more than CELL PHONES." Blush Uh, yes, that is what I meant. I should have spotted that, but I didn't... "he meant ... a lot more than CELL PHONES. I think cell phones is about 1/3 of the market demand for Flash." Sounds about right. I am not denying that cell phones are currently the volume market for flash. But there are a whole lot more things that flash can be used in. Flash was a pretty borderline product until fairly recently, the densities were low and price was a lot higher than EPROMs. There were other problems with multiple power supplies, limited erase cycles, slow speed, etc., etc... It is different now. Microcontrollers are cheap and powerful. Bluetooth and 802.11b are going to be cheap, Philips is claiming they will have an $8 single chip 802.11b radio the year after next. Cheap processing, cheap storage and cheap communications will reshape the way we do things. We are entering the golden age of embedded engineering with ubiquitous computing. You just wait and see...