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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: foundation who wrote (13304)	7/26/2001 9:04:39 AM
From: foundation	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 197214

Andrew Seybold: Return of the Wireless Guru cont'd.... Daphne Lee, NYC, NY: For the past week or so, we've been hearing that Motorola is posting a loss, Nokia's profit is down, Ericsson reports how challenging it is etc. How do you view the handsets industry to be in the next half of this year? And especially with the current economic situation in the US, with consumers being wary with buying new handsets or subscribing to new plans, would this cause a further dent to the handsets industry. Where do you see this industry moving? What technolgy do you think is the hottest for handsets? Andrew Seybold: The handset industry is going to have a rough time until two things happen--first, the new voice and data networks have to be in place and secondly there has to be a reason for voice users to buy a new phone--it is all about creating a reason for folks to upgrade Kristine, NY, NY: What are your predictions on AT&T Wireless's viability given they're recent spinoff and earnings announcement? How does their business plans stack up against Verizon, Sprint and Cingular? Andrew Seybold: I have written a lot about AT&T and what I call their Rube Goldberg approach to their wireless strategy or lack there of--I think that they are going to find themselves in a lot of trouble trying to please Wall Street, NTT DoCoMo, their big investor, and their customers. They are trying to be all things to all of these and I Don't believe that they can pull it off Kristine, NY, NY: What is your opinion on Qualcomm's descision not to proceed with their spinoff? What are the implications there as to the viability of BREW becoming widely adopted off? Andrew Seybold: Qualcomm's stated reason for keeping the Semi group is that they now have cross licenses--I think their keeping the group is smart but I for one was hoping to buy some stock!! Bruce Nadelson Lambertville NJ: Hutchison and Vodaphone seem to be going head to head, with Vodaphone slowing and Hutchison going all out toward 3G. Hutchison also seems to be WCDMA/cdma2000 agnostic. What do you expect of this competition? Andrew Seybold: This is going to be interesting to watch--I think that Vodafone as finally gotten it--3G is NOT about making a fortune with data it is about paying for a network with voice users and making incrementatal income with data services--Hutchison is still dreaming of a high percentage of data profits Robert Solomon, Burlingame, CA: Hi Andy. In your opinion, what is or will be the key to present or future mobile/wireless solutions that you expect will most likely impact the utilities/energy industry as we have identified it as a significant vertical market for mobility product vendors, and do you plan on joining us at our annual MobileEXPO Utilities Forum in Mesa, AZ October 1-4? Andrew Seybold: No answer to this one Dick Kranzmann, Eatonton, GA: Andrew Nice of you to be here today. I have 2 questions. 1. It would seem that the major wireless industry vendors...Lucent. Nortel, Ericsson, Nokia...all are in for a continuing rough period ahead. Can you comment on the expected rate of innovation in the industry given to substantial cut backs we have seen? 2. In recent articles you seem to favor cdma2000 as the best technology path to success. Please comment on the reasons why more operators have not embraced this technology and what could be done to help more operators "see the light". Thanks. Andrew Seybold: Ok--first, the down turn is partly because of the dot.com crash, partly because of the NasDaq fear of the technology sector and partly because all of these companies beleived that the Internet's success would translate to the Wireless Internet's success--and that this would be an easy sell to consumes. The good news is that these companies now realize that this is NOT about the Wireless Internet--that being an extension of the existing Internet but rather about getting information--not surfing--and that it will take longer and be more expensive to make work--the new plans, based on reality this time, not FUD, are positive and I believe that the Wireless Economy will rebound faster than the Nasdaq CDMA2000 is the best, most specturlly efficient technology commerically available today--but Quaclomm is the Microsoft of the Wireless Industry--the company that everybody loves to hate--I don't understand it, and if I were a stock holder in a carrier that was going in a different direction I would ask some long, hard questions--in the US, espeicaly, where we are not going to get more spectrum anytime soon, it makes no sense not to make use of a technology that is the most specturally efficient--and no, I am NOT on Qualcomm's payroll, and No I do not own lots of Qualcomm's stock!!! Karen Jones, Arlington, VA: Is it possible for Wi-Fi to subsume PCS/cellular? What are PCS/Cellular players doing to thrwart the competitive threat? Andrew Seybold: I think that 802.11B is best as a augmentation to 3G wireless services--I don't think it is a competitive threat but is a local, last 300 foot solution Andrew Seybold: Well, I have enjoyed this today--I hope you have as well. WirelessWeek have asked me to do this on a monthly basis and I have agreed, so see you all next month!!! Andy Seybold wirelessweek.com

To: foundation who wrote (13304)	7/27/2001 8:36:28 AM
From: quartersawyer	Respond to of 197214

Seybold : "if a carrier wants to be successful with 3G services in the next few years they better be able to see a ROI based on voice--data is incremental income--not primary income--look at iMode--24 million users, at $25 per month--that is just 10% of NTT DoCoMos monthly gross income" He made a few statements saying that same thing... voice capacity will drive 3G. Mobile internet, entertainment, Multimedia Messaging Service for business, location-based services... all are relatively insignificant revenue generators. ROI over "the next few years" seems like a very negative orientation, suited to carriers who are so capacity constrained they can't operate without 3G, and so financially shallow they can't afford to look out beyond two or three years. Who's he talking about? Or is it the fixed competition? If i-mode can generate 10% of DoCoMo gross income with under 10kbps to work with, data takeup is bound to be strong with BREW/Java/3Gmultimodes. Plenty of active people and businesses to drive 3G in the world's population centers.