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Strategies & Market Trends : Trader J's Inner Circle -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ajtj99 who wrote (45176)	7/26/2001 9:43:19 AM
From: Canuck Dave	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 56534

Got 1000 JNPR @ 23.75 CD

To: ajtj99 who wrote (45176)	7/26/2001 9:59:01 AM
From: Nicole Bourgault	Respond to of 56534

Satisfy to learn that I am not alone with being bullish. Nicole :)

To: ajtj99 who wrote (45176)	7/26/2001 10:19:29 AM
From: Nicole Bourgault	Respond to of 56534

We will have difficulty in cross the 2000. Nicole

To: ajtj99 who wrote (45176)	7/26/2001 1:18:09 PM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 56534

one last scary story and i promise to stop:) from Rudy's wire--Reuters 7/25 <<Rising Layoffs May Soon Breach U.S. Confidence By Marjorie Olster NEW YORK (Reuters) - If, as Federal Reserve (news - web sites) Chairman Alan Greenspan (news - web sites) says, the fabric of American consumer confidence has not yet been breached, it is wearing pretty thin under the strain of fast-mounting layoffs. Economists who closely watch consumer indebtedness said this week they are growing increasingly concerned about the ability of heavily leveraged Americans to keep paying off their debts with job losses rising so rapidly. ``You can't be complacent about consumer confidence. It is currently endangered by an unfinished litany of corporate downsizing,'' said John Lonski, chief economist at credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service. ``As long as we have announced layoffs and slumping stock prices, then we have every reason to believe that unemployment might continue to rise, layoffs will rise and eventually will take a toll on consumer spending,'' he said. The U.S. economy has barely grown for the past year and unemployment has risen to 4.5 percent from 3.9 percent last October as withering corporate profits spurred the most layoffs seen since a decade ago, during the last U.S. recession. Average profits at S&P 500 companies are expected to have dropped by more than 17 percent in the April-June quarter, which would be the worst performance since the 1990-1991 recession. The current quarter does not look much brighter, which bodes for more deep job cuts, economists said. GREENSPAN SAYS CONSUMER STILL STANDING Despite the rising layoffs and deepening corporate gloom, Greenspan said on Tuesday that Americans' faith in their economic well-being has not yet cracked. ``The fabric of consumer confidence has not been breached,'' he told lawmakers in testimony on the state of the economy. Greenspan probably based his conclusion on consumer spending -- one of the most important economic indicators because it accounts for two-thirds of gross domestic product. While demand has slowed considerably, economists expect consumer spending to have risen more than 2.0 percent in the second quarter, not a blockbuster performance but nevertheless probably enough to help keep the economy from sliding into a recession. Still, that figure pales in comparison with the boom days of early 2000, when spending rose by a hefty 7.6 percent. But some economists are wondering how long spending can hold up if job losses continue at the recent pace. Announced layoffs at U.S. companies, tracked by outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, surged 56 percent in June from May. In the first half of the year, firms announced plans to cut 777,362 jobs, more than three times the number planned in the same period last year. Technology companies alone accounted for 312,389 of those jobs. But weekly jobless claims still have not reached the levels seen in the last recession, and the unemployment rate at 4.5 percent is still far below the 7.8 percent peak in 1992 in the wake of the last downturn. John Challenger, chief executive at Challenger, Gray & Christmas, said many of the people affected by downsizing are still able to find new jobs. This is why the unemployment rate has not increased at nearly the same rate as job cuts. Moody's Lonski said confidence could probably withstand the unemployment rate rising to 5.0 percent. ``But then it has to come down -- otherwise consumer confidence would be coming down rapidly,'' he said. ``When it breaks above 5.0 percent toward 5.5 percent, it will be hard to avoid a recession at that point.'' MOUNTAINS OF DEBT As layoffs accelerate, the vulnerability of highly indebted American consumers grows. Credit rating agency Standard & Poor's said this week it expects consumer bankruptcies and credit card charge-offs to rise in coming quarters, due mainly to rising unemployment. ``The economic slowdown is pushing highly leveraged consumers into default and bankruptcies,'' Standard & Poor's chief economist David Wyss said in a research note. ``Although most Americans are in healthy financial shape, thanks in part to the stock market boom of the late 1990s, a significant number borrowed more than they could afford to pay back. Both bankruptcies and credit-card losses are at record highs.'' Wyss said he expects personal bankruptcies to rise by 20 percent this year, compared with a small decline in 2000. The ratio of credit card delinquencies is expected to reach 6.6 percent this year and 6.9 percent next year, compared with 5.6 percent last year. According to Lonski, the willingness of consumers to continue borrowing should be read as a sign that confidence, as Greenspan says, is intact. ``When confidence is breached, we will see a pullback in debt-financed consumer spending and net borrowing in credit sensitive areas like housing and autos would decline,'' he said. ''And we would see a rise in delinquencies.''>> end quote