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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric L who wrote (14162)	7/26/2001 1:27:29 PM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

This is exactly what is said: A key part of EMC's latest forecast is the assumption that some markets will grow beyond the traditional saturation point of 100% penetration. In forecasting terms the saturation point is the assumed point to be reached in the future and not necessarily within the forecasted time frame when no more growth is predicted, also known as the top of the s-curve. Forecasting towards a saturation point of 100% when markets are already achieving 75% penetration rates will by definition show growth rates slowing down. Key Assumptions underlying this calculation include ....five year olds with cellular accounts This is where the writer blew it. Is he talking about how saturation is calculated in the biz or how he made the calculation that more than 100% penetration will take place in certain key markets by 2005? The object of the phrase "this calculation" cannot be clearly discerned. Someone who is not well-versed in the industry could reasonably conclude that "this calculation" means the method by which saturation is calculated. A terribly imprecise use of language by a writer who should have utter clarity as his goal. It is also silly to talk about more than 100% penetration, a better term is necessary. This is what it should say: "In reaching its forecast, EMC believes that certain advanced markets will be highly penetrated by 2005. We assume a substantial number of multi-account households in these markets as well as five year old users of cell phones [Yeah, sure]. This trend will not be seen in less advanced markets." There is no place in the forecast for Third World five year olds with cell phones because those markets are not yet highly penetrated. But I couldn't resist. Such a softball. -vbg- However, I see nowhere in the EMC stuff the suggestion that five year olds are eligible, as you put it, for accounts, and that is why they are counted. If they are not assumed to actually have the account, what's the point of using them as part of the forecasting process? Eligibility doesn't count. Or shouldn't. I'm eligible for a lot of things, none of which are likely to happen. The ultimate point is that the EMC stuff is diminished because it is very badly written. Its credibility is suspect because of assumptions that are almost comically absurd. Thank God Illmarinen didn't write it.

To: Eric L who wrote (14162)	7/26/2001 2:13:03 PM
From: S100	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 34857

I note that you seem to ruffling a few feathers with your (mindless?) trumpeting of some expensive report on Cellular, which may or may not include 5 year olds. If I found some report on cellular with 5 year old included in any fashion in my in basket, I would have to consider even free as too high a price and file it, not in a round file, but in a rectangular one I have with a slot and motor. A short period of grinding would occur. I have reviewed the Nokia 20F and think I understand why the SEC does not consider it satisfactory for their use. It is entirely too readable and in a pleasant easy to read font. I believe the SEC prefers or perhaps requires the use of the type of font used on line printers (chain printers) years ago. Similar, I think, to the printer in use in the basement of the B of A building in SF in the sixties or early seventies. Once a month, a special report, on very costly paper, was prepared using a custom program on the mainframe. Every one would gather around the printer and hope that the program would malfunction in a special way. On a very random basis, it would do a bunch of form feeds, print one line, more form feeds, print one line, etc, until the paper was rising several feet above the printer and a nice standing wave was formed. It would quit after a few lines were printed and the expensive paper would be in a pile on the floor. The line printed was "THE GREEN PHANTOM STRIKES AGAIN". The B of A had wisely refused to pay for the source code and since the free lance programmer had long ago cashed the check and beat feet, there not much the B of A could do to correct the problem. The numbers in the 20F, are of course, provided under accounting standards that may or may not be clear. Taxes are usually a good indicator of profits, however, that does not seem to show up other than in passing with no total figure given. (wait, there it is, on page 72, going up, that is good, now someone calculate the tax rate ). However, it appears that US residents are taxed at lower rate than residents of Finland, who may also have to pay a transfer tax as well as the Finnish tax on net capital. How would that work? Seems to have problems if the net capital is determined on a certain date, such as the peak price on a dotcom and when the tax is due, the dotcom is out of business and the stock worthless, which could be a matter of a few months or weeks. Would the Finnish Government accept the now worthless stock? The history is worth reading, 135 years to go from papermaking to rubber boots, tires and cable to the present, including the technological breakthrough of GSM. Nice graphic showing the progression from a 22 pound phone to 2.78 ounces. Also, they identify the various property, plants and equipment that they own. I note that the R and D site in SD is absent from the list. Not very productive, perhaps? Why do they have a 40 million British pounds sterling loan at an 11.375 per cent fixed rate? For a tax deduction? All in all, a very easy read, compared to some the forecasts you seem to focus on and also, easier to read than some of the posts here that seem to be written in reverse polish notation in forty columns.