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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Young who wrote (4356)	7/26/2001 1:25:23 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

Mike, I basically agree with IJ's numbers here. Allegra US royalty is very low, but outside the US it's significant (I guess around 7%). The key here is Japan, where one quarter after introduction it already has a $200m annualized run rate. SEPR royalties last quarter were a little over $11m, all from continuing royalties rather than from one-time payments. This should grow nicely over the next few years (particularly if SGP ever gets its act together - but don't hold your breath on that one.) Just how well SEPR does over the next few years will depend largely on Soltara and the status of the non-sedating antihistamine market. The key here to my mind is the timing of the Claritin generic and what impact it will have on the rest of the market. Soltara might well be "best of breed" here, and so I think that SEPR will still do well in this market even against a generic Claritin. OTC for Claritin, Allegra and Zyrtec would probably be a wash for SEPR - there is always going to be a demand for a prescription anthistamine and that would leave only Clarinex and Soltara to compete for it. Finally, don't overlook the large synergy between Soltara and Xopenex detailing. Right now Xopenex market share is about 5x higher among the physicians they detail heavily (around 50% market share) compared to ones they don't detail at all. Peter