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To: A.L. Reagan who wrote (1019)	7/26/2001 4:16:27 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9255

A. L., << Calling this bearish is an understatement. >> Should I have used all caps and bolded? <g> CSFB has been more bearish on CDMA and Qualcomm than any major firm I can think of, for as long as I can think of. << I will continue to take the other side of this bet. >> I'm always on the on the conservative side when a new net is being built out. Still I like to take a stab at numbers. Early I conjectured 6M net CDMA adds next year. I'm sticking with it. I think Unicom was quoted today as forecasting 10M and my recall was that was all CDMA. << clue as to the general status of browser and content development for PRC mobiles? I would think there would be some government oversight of this, which might not auger for rapid development of free and easy access to rich content, thus perhaps lagging the PRC versus "Western" countries in terms of take-up rates on GPRS and 1X.>> That's the $64M question. Control of content frequently mentioned. I would think this would affect GPRS more than 1X, but planned budgets for GPRS are huge. << Of course there is that little issue of per capita personal income at the marginal subscriber that, outside of big cities, indicates that voice will be the sole sine qua non for some time. >> That too. Unicom is targeting "high end" and this relates back to content. China Mobile supposedly is 80% prepaid on its net new adds this year (way higher than Unicom). APRU will be a huge issue that will affect Unicom's continued pace of buildout. - Eric -