XXXX - Totally agree with the FA side of that article but I also have to agree with Catman that we have to trade the swings the market gives us. Right now, it appears we are going into another irrational exuberance phase where bad news is only bad news for a few days at most then we forget all about it and rally again.
The silly stories today were flying around like crazy and I don't think anyone really believed them but the charts said we were supposed to rally and there wasn't any real news to rally on so they just made up a bunch of stuff. Now that QCOM is giving a rosy picture, they will likely run with it tomorrow.
The charts still look pretty good tonight so I still expect more upside. I am already getting some short term over bought readings on a few stocks like CSCO but since we were so low for so long, those could stay that way a while and I would prefer to watch other indicators for better clues. I will be watching ADX to see if it wants to swing up giving strength to this move up or if it drops off showing a mild corrective phase to a larger correction looming ahead. I still think we have time to put in an impressive wave "C" sucker rally before dropping later this year.
An interesting note I didn't know until I saw it posted on SI is that the 3 year shuffling of how GDP is calculated is apparently tomorrow. In other words, they can tell us anything they want to and make the statistics look like they want.
Some on SI were showing concern over the lack of GE and MSFT to join in the rally and while I whole heartedly agree with them, I also can think of more dire reasons to take it up without these two. If they can rally without them in teh beginning and with good breadth ( Despite MMM making up a large part of the DOW's move today due to it's weighting), then they can run MSFT and GE up at the end and that weight can mask them selling their gains in teh other issues. Remember, never watch the hand the magician is trying to make you look at, watch the other one. -ggg-
I will be watching the resistance areas of 2100 NASDAQ or 1750 NDX ( 43 QQQ), then 2250 NASDAQ or 1830 NDX and last 2350 NASDAQ or 2025 NDX.
The indicator still looks OK so plenty of upside room according to it. SANM broke out of that bearish wedge negating the pattern today and the weekly looks OK so I am dropping my caution on it. OIther weekly charts aren't that great looking with only a few exceptions and could go either way with a slight bullish bias. AMAT weekly is signalling a buy that will show up this weekend when I do the update but most of the rest are just hangin in no man's land except for the OSX which is still moveing up slightly on last week's buy signal.
As we move up, I expect some of the perma bulls will start slobbering all over and ranting about various things. One of the most obvious will be the weekly down trend line from 1 Sept of 2000. That line is so steep that it will get broken to the upside if we don't reverse almost immediately. As I said, that line is so steep, I view it as negligable as we would almost have to crash to stay below it much longer. Keep in mind we are still in a down trend until proven otherwise in the long term picture and the most I expect of this rally is a mid term move of a month or so before the final wave down hits.
This rally could die a lot faster for all I know but we are deeply over sold and need some relief. As I said, I will be watching the above resistance levels and as Don said the internals of the move up. With JDSU's earnings release tonight, I wouldn't expect too much action in CSCO either. I wouldn't short until the first resistance area unless something major comes out news wise and even then I myself will likely just sell calls short and lighten up on some longs. The second resistance area is where I will start accumulating shorts but that is far enough down the road, we should know more by then.
GLOBEX triggers a biased slightly down but only about a point or so.
Good Luck,
Lee
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I just found something interesting while checking the outstanding margin on the markets. Margin debt in securities is now back to the same levels it was in 1999. Interesting enough, so are the indexes. So in other words, margin debt has stayed flat in relation to the level of the market and this drop hasn't reduced the fear level enough for people to stop using borrowed money to gamble with. People are just as margined out on debt on the way down as they were on the way up.
Margin levels are at nasdr.com
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From: flyeguy99
On July 26th, 2000..............
EXACTLY one year ago today, JDS Uniphase closed at $136 after trading over 140 million shares as its stock was added to the S&P 500, the stock never again closed above $130 thereafter.
On July 26th, 2001..............
JDS Uniphase gets halted 30 minutes before the close at $9.46 as it reports a mind boggling $50.6 billion loss for FY2001 or ($46.30)a share, most of it from writing down its goodwill investments in SDLI and ETEK.
jdsuniphase.com.
"Downturns in telecommunications equipment and financial markets have created unique circumstances with regard to the assessment of long-lived assets, and the Company sought the counsel of the Staff of the Securities and Exchange Commission on the interpretation of GAAP with regard to this matter. The Company has had communications with the Staff of the SEC, and will amend its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2001 to reduce the carrying value of goodwill by $38.7 billion for that quarter. In addition, the Company has recorded a $6.1 billion reduction of goodwill for the quarter ended June 30, 2001 following further declines in its market capitalization. Finally, approximately $300 million in certain amounts paid to SDL executives in connection with the acquisition which were previously recorded as acquisition costs in the quarter ended March 31, 2001 have been reclassified as a one-time charge for that period and the Company also recorded a $715 million charge for that period to write down the value of its equity investment in ADVA. Because of the significant industry downturn the Company is in the process of performing a review of its long-lived assets in accordance with GAAP, and this review may result in further charges being recorded for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2001 based on the value of such assets.
The largest portion of the Company's goodwill arose from the merger of JDS FITEL and Uniphase and the subsequent acquisition of SDL, E-TEK, and OCLI. The businesses associated with these business combinations remain significant operations within JDS Uniphase notwithstanding the current business downturn and change in market valuations.
Including reduction of goodwill and purchased intangibles, merger-related charges, realized and unrealized losses on equity investments, gain on the sale of a subsidiary, purchased intangibles amortization, payroll taxes on stock option exercises, stock compensation charges, and activity related to equity method investments, the Company reported a loss of $7.9 billion or $5.99 per share for the quarter and $50.6 billion or $46.30 per share for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2001."
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From: patron_anejo_por_favor Thursday, Jul 26, 2001 4:22 PM
View Replies (4) | Respond to of 114685
Here's a pretty typical example of how mortgage refi's work here in sunny Phoenix:
msnbc.com
Michael Herr, a 33-year-old supervisor for a hair-dryer manufacturer near Phoenix, has refinanced his home three times in four years. The first transaction, in 1998, produced $25,000 in cash, which Mr. Herr and his wife, Shannon Kaiser-Herr, used to reduce credit-card debt and pay private-school tuition for three of their four children. Their mortgage-interest rate held steady at 9%, but the mortgage grew by almost a quarter, to $128,000. Their monthly payment rose to about $1,100, from $1,050.
A second refinancing boosted the Herrs’ loan to $133,000 and yielded $5,000 in cash. They have continued acquiring big-ticket items. Last Christmas, Shannon bought Michael a big-screen television for $2,200. “I don’t need it, but I love it,” he says. “We like to buy things.” Their credit-card debt grew to more than $40,000 in 2000.
This year, the Herrs, who had combined 2000 income of about $78,000, went back for a third refinancing. They tapped $20,000 more of the equity in their home, which was appraised at $165,000, up 19% from four years ago. Mr. Herr says his mortgage broker, State Mortgage, told him this would have to be the last time. With a new $160,000 mortgage, the Herrs have only $5,000 of equity left in their house. Their interest rate is now down to 7%, but with the bigger loan, their monthly payment is up to about $1,200.
Most of the $20,000 in cash they recently obtained went to chip away at credit-card debt, Mr. Herr says. But if there’s anything left over, he adds, they might spend it on a vacation.
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From: stomper Thursday, Jul 26, 2001 7:33 PM
This is cute, JDSU restates March quarter and writes off the extra 35 billion in that quarter...LOL, but really -ng-:
The Company has had communications with the Staff of the SEC, and will amend its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2001 to reduce the carrying value of goodwill by $38.7 billion for that quarter. In addition, the Company has recorded a $6.1 billion reduction of goodwill for the quarter ended June 30, 2001 following further declines in its market capitalization. Finally, approximately $300 million in certain amounts paid to SDL executives in connection with the acquisition which were previously recorded as acquisition costs in the quarter ended March 31, 2001 have been reclassified as a one-time charge for that period and the Company also recorded a $715 million charge for that period to write down the value of its equity investment in ADVA. |
