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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (49867)	7/26/2001 9:03:54 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Insider trading for July: APPLIED MATERIALS INC. Joseph R. Bronson, chief financial officer, sold 12,000 shares of common at $54.40 each on May 23 and now directly and indirectly holds 50,503. Michael H. Armacost, director, sold 2,512 shares of common at $56.52 each on May 21 and now directly holds 138,972.

To: Gottfried who wrote (49867)	7/26/2001 9:36:04 PM
From: Alastair McIntosh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

I don't think all the dumping will be in October. I expect strong selling in August as well. Anyhow, who ever accused investors of being rational? Alastair, But the high AMAT P/S is generally known NOW. So why would investors wait till October to dump the stock? Some reasons: A. Sector outlook will continue to worsen: 1.Falling utilization rates - bookings will continue to decline with industry utilization rates through at least Q3. Utilization rates under 50% mean that a very large increase is required for capacity buys. June bookings are still 46% higher than 1998 troughs 2. 2002 capital budgets continue to be cut. 3. Cap ex. was front loaded for first half of this year. (INTC and TXN) 4. Orders trend down with falling ASP pressures at chipmakers. Chipmakers are experiencing deteriorating GMs as ASP falls. In the '98 downturn ASPs reached a bottom 2 months before bookings troughed. 5. Economies for 300 mm are not in place. 300 mm volume probably delayed from 2002/03 to 2003/04. 6. No sign of recovery in FO space for 12 to 18 months. B: Economic conditions are worse than many believe; 1. High probability of recession by independent forecasters. 2. Interest rate cuts not doing the job. Long term rates (on which capital investment decisions are made) are not following short term rates down. Consumers are not going to borrow to buy computers as layoffs continue. C: Other 1. Seasonality. August and October are the worst months to be in the market. I am guessing at a strong selloff in Aug. followed by a Sept. rally. Another round of earnings warnings may produce a bottom in Oct. Probably a great rally from there until next spring. 2. The continuing incredible bullishness of the posters on the AMAT thread. 3. Market remains about 15% over-valued based on Fed funds model. Major up-turns usually require the markets to get to about 15% to 20% under-valued. P/E of the NASDAQ remains high. Al