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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam Citron who wrote (49870)	7/26/2001 9:05:41 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Respond to of 70976

Orders are a gentleman's agreeement. They are firm until they are not. A purchase order is a signed contract, but when your customer doesn't need or can't afford your product, you smile and "wait til next year." Pushouts that reduce backlog are pushouts beyond one year. Customers prefer pushouts because it holds a place. Cancellations and reorders put them at the end of the line. During the slowdown well managed companies increase cash, but working capital and book decreases. Durability is a difficult question, but well managed semi-equips have little debt, relatively small plant and equipment costs, and variable costs that are laid off. I could see a buck or two knocked off AMAT, KLAC, and NVLS. LRCX went from ~$21 to ~$12 pre-split book, in the '96/'98 down cycle, but they are "under new management," I wonder why!