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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (80915)	7/27/2001 2:55:42 AM
From: Berney	Respond to of 99985

M, that was an incredibly great response. I was wondering if you would even bother! There is most likely a reason that the short interest continues to grow. I only wish that I had the the capital to make it be so. My very best to you! Berney

To: mishedlo who wrote (80915)	7/27/2001 10:26:55 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

What leads you to believe that a recession will hit next March? From this post of yours you may understand why I do not like you quoting my posts on the fool. Last year, yo did not even look at the tick's numbers as potential sentiment indicators, nor use them as tactical trading tools, now it is "how I judge things". The danger is that you use just some indicators, and as ( have stated many times, no one or even a number of indicators is really perfect. Zeev

To: mishedlo who wrote (80915)	7/27/2001 10:46:09 AM
From: McNabb Brothers	Respond to of 99985

Mish, When everything really looks as bad as you claim is the time to start accumulating good stocks! I think you are fighting a losing battle with shorts now! Be very careful! Hank

To: mishedlo who wrote (80915)	7/27/2001 11:48:17 PM
From: Greg Jung	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Mish I share your bad timing luck by getting shorter on Thusday AM, I'm using more volatile instrument than QQQ. The soxx & NDX are near top of their recent range and if they had overshot today I was going to cover. There was no follow-through to speak of, but sheesh they are sure hot and heavy trying to get an end-of-month ramp. My buy stop didn't execute but it came close on a spike. Another shorting instrument are the rydex funds ryvyx-velocity and ryvnx-venture. I started the venture 100 wednesday just in time for 5% drop if NDX shoots beyond 1700 I will start an offsetting velocity fund - these are 2/NDX and 2*NDX. If you figure the market will make a big move one way or another (in a long time period) you can use these for a straddle they each have equal & opposite % reactions so the $ in the winning fund increases faster than the $ in the losing fund. - Anyway it can mark time until the vestment period is past in the Schwab group, and you then have no-cost transaction vehicle in IRA for market direction bets. The straddle works best if you take it off when a clear winner has been established: the total reverses quickly on a market reversal.

To: mishedlo who wrote (80915)	7/29/2001 6:03:52 AM
From: epsteinbd	Respond to of 99985

Misheldo, afrer reading your interesting post, and following debate, here is my FWIW : To start with, the housing numbers are presentely a lagging indicator reflecting the people fleeing the market Big Bubble and even Small Bubble in progress, (the April one). Now that the last earnings and guidance (or lack of) have finished coming out, I see a Minute Bubble forming first. But what will happen during the summer and afterwards, considering that we don't (yet) get NEWS that would, by themselves, move us in any direction by their sheer force, wheather good or bad ? I dont take into accound the fact traht this week can still lead us to a 5 or 7% decrese 1/ Till next confession season, we may climb 15% , max 20% Nas, and slowly retreat (like in any bubble to the +10% from this week's bottom. 2/ On late October, earning and forward guidance would of course point to the next direction. My take is that, at that time, another Bubble, to be called the New Expectation Bubble that would drive us to the 2700 level, its rate of climb proportional to the news and their subjective, hoped for perception, its rate of descend, proportional to Zeev (and disciples)profit taking strategies(g). Like usual. By that time, + 5-6 months, we face two possibilities : -We are told that we got out of the woods and we steadily climb after some rush and a 1/4 retreat (only) to 3000+ -The ugly scenario unfolds driving us back down. A case I don't expect : as the rates cuts do their percieved job, the human natural positive nature follows, the money keeps looking for the best possible returns, the people accumulated and Big Bubble escaped wealth ( a couple of hundred billions $ ) get really tired of waiting on the sidelines, and just as important, if not more so, the debt ridden US Society has come to agreement with its personal debt level, as there is no other alternative but a 1929 like recession implying the end of the actual style of life, an unacceptable proposition for a nation that has the gut feelin that there are always more fuel stations along the way, which will prove correct IMHO. Conclusion : in the times ahead (6-9 months) odds are 3 to 1 we'll make more than what we stand to loose. Epsteinbd