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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (80931)	7/27/2001 2:00:41 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I believe that within the next two months, the Feds will be done reducing rates, historically, the feds don't like to have the rate at only 1% to 2% percent above inflation (I won't go into that here), so as the perception that economic well being is coming back, and trumpeting that once more, the Feds engineered a "soft landing" (avoiding a recession), the feds will start and first, indicates that "inflation dangers outweigh economic slow down dangers", and then actually act upon it, that will cool off (more rapidly than last time for various reasons) the then nascent bull market, IMTO. Other parameters (such as strung out consumers, falling dollar, debt, and a dip into the red on the budget front), will possibly give birth to another bear phase. Zeev

To: HairBall who wrote (80931)	7/27/2001 2:19:37 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

to join in, in 12-14 months, current Fed errors crop up again they overtightened in 1999/2000 when the natural Post-Y2K Effect wouldve taken care of heated economy when they misread the inflation threat, equating fast growth with unavoidable inflation thus now a brutal stock bear market they must now overease in 2001 to avoid economic recession thus next year a minor inflation flare from far too much monetary stimulus with money supply if energy adds to the heat, then expect more than a minor inflation flare either way the Fed will again react like the DRUNK DRIVER we know and hate and raise interest rates with talk of "pre-emptive action" by July-Oct 2002, expect the Fed to tighten JUST LIKE IN 1994, after they way way overeased in 1992-93 with no economic recession seen in 1994 but plenty of investor pain / Jim