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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boplicity who wrote (80934)	7/28/2001 11:24:28 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I have hard time seeing 4000 being made on a anticipation rally alone, we will need evidenced, which will be slow in coming and weak from lack of the next big thing and continued over capacity as you stated. Bop I agree with you on this. If we get back to 3250 I will be flabbergasted and stunned as well. Not gonna happen IMHO. For what predictions are worth (and not much these days it seems during these whipsaws) 2950 is my top call. Still, that is a HUGE HUGE rally from here. The lower we sink in August and Oct the higher we go IMHO. If we can not put in a firm bottom on panic then everyone will be doubting this baby and selling every rally IMHO. So bring on the panic. I will tell you this. Expectations have been lowered, lowered, lowered, lowered, lowered, and finally lowered again. Any company that can not make these lowered expectations in Nov deserves to die. In fact most of them that do make these lowered estimates deserve to die. However, as soon as CSCO reports an uptick in orders, all the comapnies like AMCC, PWER etc associated with it may go back to the moon. I fully expect more lunacy in the market. It takes years to unwind this mess and right now everyone is more concerned with catching the bottom than reality. This next "uptick" in business from CSCO etc will be just that. CSCO profiting by re-selling inventory that it has written off, or perhaps the latest round of CYCLICAL buying of routers, PC. etc. IT WILL NOT MATTER. The market is likely to over-react as if we are going to build the internet all over again. In precicely 1-2 quarters after this nonsense, we will see more warnings. That will be the final straw. J6P will have already been tapped out and we BREAK the lows set this April or OCT (whichever) is lower when the recession hits (just an ineviatble matter of time). This is not a pretty picture but how can it be any different? My timing could be off by as much as 6 months but I am 98.6% confident in this scenario. M