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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tony Viola who wrote (140304)	7/27/2001 9:55:21 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Re: I honestly think AMD will be lucky to emerge to the other side during this protracted downturn. Different people, different perspectives. AMD made more money per share selling CPUs for $75 last quarter than Intel did when its were around $150. And Intel was still able to command very high ASPs for mobile and workstation/server chips last quarter. This quarter, Intel has found it necessary to slash its mobile ASPs to compete with AMD and has cut it's server chip prices for no reason that I can see - but they do seem to have cut them. This quarter AMD has some support for its ASPs in the form of mobile sales, and next quarter they will probably sell enough workstations/SHV servers to help a bit more. AMD will break even or lose a little money. For Intel, it's hard to see a bottom. If AMD ASPs go to $70 even adding mobile, Intel's will probably drop to $120 after losing the mobile and server advantages. If Intel gets $30 less on each of 25 million chips, that's a drop of $750 million in revenues. They have all the employee and materials cost increases due to the need to process 3 times as many wafers to produce P4 as PIII. Intel, like AMD, will be facing lower Flash and other revenue, as well. Capex will be lower next quarter, but capex doesn't affect quarterly profits (if it did, Intel would have shown a $1.5 Billion loss for Q2). So Intel looks to make a solid loss next quarter, and for Q4, too. Intel has a pretty high price to sales ratio, right now. Two quarters of losses could send it to single digits in a hurry. The broad based industry momentum building behind SOI is looking more and more like what we saw with DDR vs. RDRAM. And once again, AMD is on the right side of the fence, and Intel is on the wrong side. We'll see how it works out. Remember how RDRAM was going to give Intel a huge advantage over the DDR that AMD and everyone else was using? Now RDRAM is fading fast and Intel is scrambling frantically to get a DDR platform out. Shortly after Intel gets a competitive platform out, AMD will be raising the bar with SOI processors, and this time it will be AMD with a proven platform to support its new chip technology while Intel is is launching Northwood with a new socket and 3-months-since-Beta chipset. Q1 could see AMD with $80 ASPs making 25 cents per share while Intel is down to $100 ASPs and losing $1 Billion per quarter.

To: Tony Viola who wrote (140304)	7/29/2001 5:23:02 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Tony, speaking of brand: Intel's is worth $35B according to a BW article. businessweek.com The World's 10 Most Valuable Brands RANK BRAND 2001 BRAND VALUE ($BILLIONS) 1 COCA-COLA 68.9 2 MICROSOFT 65.1 3 IBM 52.8 4 GE 42.4 5 NOKIA 35.0 6 INTEL 34.7 7 DISNEY 32.6 8 FORD 30.1 9 McDONALD'S 25.3 10 AT&T 22.8 Data: Interbrand, Citigroup