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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Prophet who wrote (76272)	7/28/2001 3:32:59 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Hi The Prophet; Glad to see you still around! Re: "Yesterday's technology does not come back and predominate over cutting-edge technology of near-equal price." Intel made a mistake. They're fixing it. Re: "Many hundreds of percent more than when initially purchased. Thank you for asking." *LOL!!!* Re: "When will you concede our RDRAM/DDR pricing bet?" When we started out bet (in late March), the RDRAM to DDR ratio was only 1.625, now it's 2.907, a substantial improvement to the advantage of DDR. At that time, DDR was trading at a premium of 307% to SDRAM, now it's only 91%. I'll repeat my original post on this: Bilow, March 26, 2001 As I've stated repeatedly, RDRAM isn't going to get as cheap as 50% more expensive than SDRAM. By comparison, DDR will be around 10% over SDRAM around a year from now, and sooner in the agreements between the memory makers and their customers. #reply-15563086 So. DDR drops from a 307% premium to a 91% premium in 4 months and you doubt that it won't drop another 81% over the next 8 months? At the same time, the RDRAM premium drops only from 562% to 454% and yet you still think it's going to get below 50%? *LOL!!!* There is a contingent of Rambus morons, who, have predicted for years that RDRAM was going to become as cheap as SDRAM, while DDR would remain expensive. In the event, we've seen that they were, well, very wrong. Their explanation for this that DDR and SDRAM are failing technologies, and so naturally cheaper. This goes against the following: (1) Every prediction by Rambus had been that RDRAM was going to become cheap. (2) Every obsolete memory became obsolete by being too expensive, relative to its replacement. (3) It was well known in the industry that Micron was going to drop prices on DDR to SDRAM levels. This wasn't known by TheProphet, otherwise he wouldn't have made the above losing bet with me. For those of you who don't read the trade press, or do, but find it too confusing to understand who is telling the truth and who is not, here's a reminder. Note that this was written long before DDR dropped in price: Micron may force DDR competitors to abandon high price tags Jack Robertson, EBN, February 20, 2001 Is Micron Technology Inc. crazy? While most other SDRAM chip makers are hoping to squeeze price premiums out of their emerging DDR memories, Micron has started selling DDR modules at par with single-data-rate DIMMs. ... The recent DDR Summit II in Taipei exposed the sharp division on early DDR pricing. Samsung and Elpida still forecast that DDR prices won't reach par with SDR devices until the fourth quarter at the earliest. If Micron can make its same-price policy stick, premium DDR prices could have a much shorter life. Micron said its DDR pricing is meant to ramp market adoption of the new chip. The feisty Boise, Idaho, chip maker claims its DDR production cost is the same as existing SDRAMs, so there's no reason to charge a premium. Chip rivals point out that so far, Micron's pricing is no threat to PC266 DDR modules (nomenclatured PC2100), where the company is still awaiting industry validation. Jeff Mailloux, Micron DDR marketing manager, told a DDR Summit panel that the company's PC2100 modules will be validated shortly and will be sold at par with SDR devices in the second quarter. ... ebnews.com When I made the bet with The Prophet, I was simply relying on the above information (which I knew to believe) to bring the price of DDR low before it was possible for RDRAM to drop. When you guys read this article, you thought: "Oh, it's by Jack Robertson, so it can't be true." But the fact is that Robertson reports many things that are true, along with many things that aren't. You can't tell the difference, until it happens, LOL!!! -- Carl