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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (879)	7/28/2001 10:03:37 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95450

>Market Schizophrenia!!< Very apt Don. I am seeing the market test the lower bollinger band and bounce time and time again. This is how we can trade the range. The market keeps bouncing because of hope for an impending recovery. It then falls when the actual state of the economy is factored in with over priced stocks. We will get more bounces. The question is what stocks to trade when this occurs. Prior to the last two bounces the SOX was leading the NASDAQ in direction. However the last two moves were precipitated by the NASDAQ leading the SOX. The Nasdaq composite hit the lower bollinger band and created a bounce that led the SOX higher. I don't expect we have enough catalysts to keep us moving higher. The market has shown no real strength. The average consumer seems to be getting much less confident. I believe we could easily revisit the April lows on both the SOX and NASDAQ. I also believe that the scenario I presented in the post previous to this one has a much better than 50% chance of occurring. These are my reasons for believing we can begin to recover before year end starting with hard evidence by late October: 1.) Interest Rate Cuts 2.) Tax Refunds 3.) Microsoft's Windows XP and the Xbox 4.) Short covering in the face of cash returning from the sidelines. 5.) Revival of the IPO and Capital Investment Markets. 6.) Recovery Expansion as job losses give way to new hiring. RtS