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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask DrBob -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CookiePuss who wrote (41564)	7/29/2001 3:44:46 AM
From: Drbob512	Respond to of 100058

CookiePuss: Thanks for the link and the info on Global Fund managers and American Association of Individual Investors. The latter has extremely low bearish readings, just like the Investor's Intelligence. Very negative(too little bears and too many bulls) Sentiment readings=unlikely to have srong up trend), from a contrarian view, as you pointed out....

To: CookiePuss who wrote (41564)	7/29/2001 3:44:47 AM
From: Drbob512	Respond to of 100058

CookiePuss: Thanks for the link and the info on Global Fund managers and American Association of Individual Investors. The latter has extremely low bearish readings, just like the Investor's Intelligence. Very negative(too little bears and too many bulls) Sentiment readings=unlikely to have srong up trend), from a contrarian view, as you pointed out....

To: CookiePuss who wrote (41564)	7/29/2001 11:31:33 AM
From: highyarolla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 100058

Good Point CookiePuss I only listed the bullishness percentages but not the bearish percentages. Didn't know the AAII bearishness numbers were so low. That seems to further support that in order to get a sustainable intermediate-term rally, we need another "nudge" down to lower lows to scare more people. You hit the nail right on the head with the sentiment among fund managers. Investors Intelligence doesn't measure the little guy. The average mutual fund manager appears to be much more optimistic than the average small investor. This isn't just a fluke; the divergence has existed for the last 2-3 months. The reason is likely that fund managers tend to look at old-economy stocks as a true barometer of market health. With their MBA backgrounds, they are trained to look for value, earnings, market breadth, etc. They see the Nasdaq smash as orderly and "morally correct" that the high PE stocks finally got it. They are a very rational, analytical lot. Now that value is up and growth is down, to them the order of the stock market is "restored" and that is "healthy" for the long-term. Unfortunately, too much of this complacency from rationality returning to the fore means less panic and no bottom yet. Individual investors are focused much more on tech stocks. This is evident from all the radio stock question call-ins. You almost never hear a caller ask about an old-economy stock. I have long believed that in April we had capitulation from the individual investors but not the fund managers who are centered in the old economy issues. Looking at the cyclicals and defensive issues' performance in the first-second quarters bears this out. Perhaps in order to see a true bottom long-term we have to have broad-based capitulation whereby both the cyclicals and growth stocks get slaughtered at the same time. That shows money managers are so scared they are selling outright rather rather than merely rotating money to safety issues. In major bottoms, rotation is non-existent and there are no safe havens anymore. There is no question we are ways away from "the" bottom. Gut says the ultimate bottom will happen in Q3 of 2002. But bear markets never go straight down. In 1929-1932 there were 4-5 false rallies that were brutal for shorts. Yet all of those rallies started from minor levels of despair not unlike present levels.

To: CookiePuss who wrote (41564)	7/29/2001 1:49:23 PM
From: xtahce	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 100058

CP: Data from realmoney.com is stale-dated from Jul 23/01, recent data came out Jul 26/01. The American Association of Individual Investors' sentiment survey is released once a week on Thursday mornings. TheStreet.com once had a webpage "Metrics : Sentiment Signposts" on their site that updated information every week, but is no longer available. Last update on May 24/01.... Interesting to glance back into Historical Sentiments thestreet.com Main source is the Individual Investors' web site aaii.com The AAII surveys individuals on its Web site each week. AAII asks participants where they think the stock market will be in six months. Only subscribers to AAII are eligible to vote, and they can vote only once during the survey period. Seems you can't access 'Sentiment Survey' information without membership so I find myself viewing this site for information: Market Indicators - Investor Sentiment i5ive.com ...For the third week in a row we see stable readings from II while AAII is once again acting like a Yo-Yo. AAII is not that different from two weeks ago. From Barron's July 31, 2001. Investors Intelligence bulls 52.6% Bears 23.7% Correction 23.7%...52.6/(52.6+23.7) = 68.94% Four Week Average =67.91% Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 47.4%....Four Week Average =48.48% American Association of Individual Investors Bulls 29.5% Bears 38.1% Neutral 32.4%..29.5/(29.5+38.1) = 43.64% Four Week Average = 57.37% Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 70.5% Four Week Average = 63.6% X