Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (6388)	7/29/2001 6:09:48 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<<15% unemployment, inflation of 10%>> Oh, yeah! Maurice, stop making me so eager! This is sounding much more like it. Pink ear-muffs adorned, black booties strapped on, wooly sweater wrapped, own respectable heads between own respective knees, own hands on neighbors' bottoms, turn off the lights and get ready scream our heads off. ... or, alternatively, possibly better ... Message 16112626 Chugs, Jay

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (6388)	7/29/2001 12:12:35 PM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Here is an example of the real beauty of the Internet: BBC on-line reporting that the CIA and State Department are recalling (suppressing) copies of a just-released book which details US involvement in "purging" (so many euphemisms for murder) Communists in Indonesia in 1965 and 1966 (that would be under President Johnson, a brutal, ruthless man). Unfortunate timing, because the events led to the ouster of Sukarno, whose daughter just became President of Indonesia this week. news.bbc.co.uk The book was printed by the US government printing office, affectionately called the GPO (actually they usually subcontract work like that), from documents obtained under the Freedom of Information Act in 1998 and 1999. CIA, State and GPO are all part of the executive branch, so the GPO will follow orders. But George Washington University put the controversial matter on their website anyway. Read it now while you can. gwu.edu In 1965-66, would there have been any way for US citizens to know what their government was doing and express an opinion? I don't think so. International news was very hard to get. Just tiny snippets on the network news, and whatever coverage the newspaper would carry from from AP or UPI. More in-depth coverage in something like Time magazine. Between cable news and the Internet, covert actions are harder to hide now. When Clinton bombed the El Shifa pharmaceutical plant in the Sudan ("Wag the Dog" in real life, to distract us from Monica), the whole world found out that there was no evidence that the factory was used for manufacturing nerve gas, and the facts are available for all to see whenever they care to, 'round the clock. Same thing with big corporations. They can lie, but the lies will be found out. We don't have to wait to read about it in the paper two days later, we can watch it happen in real time. So now, here we are, not sure how many of the world's citizens have access to computers and the Internet, but my guess is that all of the world's citizens who can affect economic policy do have that access, either directly or through an underling. They're listening, more or less. What should we tell them? With all this information at our fingertips, can we think of a way to avoid a global financial collapse? Something more creative than "buy another SUV"? What would it take? I don't know what is needed, I just know that it's better to avoid making a mess than cleaning one up. Here's my suggestion: stock market indexes and the economy bear only a tenuous relationship to each other. The most recent revisions to US GDP data show that the US started to slow down in first quarter 2000 (more Clinton BS being outed), yet the indexes were barrelling upward. That's the same thing that happened in 1929 - the world started to slide into the Great Depression months before October, 1929. In fact, the stock market in general peaked in April, 1929, but the indexes didn't reflect that. Same as now - the broad market peaked in 1998, but you couldn't tell it by looking at the indexes, you had to look at the advance-decline line to get the real picture.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (6388)	7/29/2001 12:57:25 PM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<Max, the Nasdaq halved and while that meant financial disaster for huge numbers of people, in the broader viewpoint, there was no major problem. Instead, USA production and employment continued almost unabated in Y2K and Alan had to keep turning the screws to squeeze the economy down.>i have been studying leveraging by the u.s. consumer and they are now at a level that is equivalent to mass margin calling danger if market does not behave well.They have gotten around the stricter margin laws that we now have versus 1929,via dangerous to the max credit usage and mortgage refinancings. One big aspect of the consumer maintaining spending this year has been a wild rush to turn house equity into cash,which many have been then been spending or putting in the market on an average down basis.(the average for house holder ownership of their homes has dropped precipitously from 85% to 56%) In short,today many investors are as acutely vulnerable as in 1929-1933 disaster. A halving of the indexes would set off crisis indebtednesss by millions of people,and forced redemptions/liquidations would become like the proverbial snowball rolling down a lengthy mountain snow slope. In short an avalanche could well erupt. I again repeat i see many of the U.S investors in the single greatest over leveraged status perhaps in our history,this is huge factor regards future events.Paxmax

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (6388)	7/29/2001 1:14:18 PM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 74559

Maurice,i just now received this post that about sums it up<<To:LTK007 who wrote (45278) From: Canuck Dave Sunday, Jul 29, 2001 12:54 PM Respond to of 45279 From Prudent Bear. I think this about sums it up. There is now no doubt that mortgage finance is the heart and soul of the Great American Credit Bubble, as well as being the inevitable Achilles heel of a vulnerable U.S. Bubble economy. It is also true that real estate has increasingly become the dominant underlying collateral for the U.S. monetary system. This is a dangerous game, and I regret that I am again compelled to accuse chairman Greenspan of gross negligence for his role in this monetary fiasco. Who is minding the store? While it clearly serves his purpose today, the negative consequences of continued mortgage credit excess will be enormous down the road. CD >>end quote