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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (3210)	7/29/2001 2:47:16 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206099

OT You almost make me an inflation Bull. However, until the 10 year note cracks 5.5% on the upside, imo the markets won't be too focused on inflation. finance.yahoo.com^TNX&d=c&t=6m&l=on&z=b&q=l And no, it won't be too late. 10 year rates of 5.5% are still incredibly low. A cracking dollar would do it. But we dollar bears have been waiting a loooooooong time for that to happen - haven't we? <g>

To: Tommaso who wrote (3210)	7/29/2001 5:53:49 PM
From: chowder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206099

Tommaso, I found your comments about holding your assets in the dollar interesting. Publicly, we have the current administration talking about keeping the dollar strong. Privately, we have a lot of multi-national companies putting heat on the current administration to soften the dollar. With the current trade imbalances, helped by a strong Dollar and a weak Euro, it would seem to me that O'Neill would understand this dilemma more than most. How will the current administration play this in the long run? Only time will tell of course, but the dollar is now showing some weakness and the Euro is finally showing some strength. The Dollar: stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyymy[pb50!b200!b25!b9][vc60][iUa12,26,9] The Euro: stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyymy[pb50!b200!b25!b9][vc60][iUa12,26,9] Your mention of France reminded me of an article I read where a lot of US Value Fund Managers have been investing in European companies as opposed to US companies. A quick look at the charts will confirm it was a smart move on their part. France is finally trending higher: stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyymy[pb50!b200!b25!b9][vc60][iUa12,26,9] Germany: stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyymy[pb50!b200!b25!b9][vc60][iUa12,26,9] Italy: stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyymy[pb50!b200!b25!b9][vc60][iUa12,26,9] Spain: stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyymy[pb50!b200!b25!b9][vc60][iUa12,26,9] It appears that as the Euro strengthens, the European markets may outperform the US. What impact will that have on foreign dollars invested in our market? I also listened to some analysis by Don Coxe. He mentioned having some inside information about US companies in the tech sector, announcing layoffs and cutbacks and that business has already been outsourced to Canadian and Australian companies. He said the US companies are shifting their business out as opposed to shutting it down. One aspect of outsourcing is that once it leaves this country, it very rarely comes back. Coxe says, if I recall correctly, to look for strength out of the Canadian and Australian markets. The analysis I've been reading and hearing indicates the US market will not be the leader during the next decade. Interesting, eh? dabum

To: Tommaso who wrote (3210)	7/29/2001 6:45:12 PM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206099

Tommaso, Oil has been a good hedge against inflation historically, but the bigger concern today is deflation not inflation. The expansion in the money supply is concerning, but I believe the Fed is focused on the deflationary trends taking place in Japan and in other parts of the world along with falling basic commodity prices and excess capacity. The biggest problem we face today is excess capacity. It's hard to conceive of inflation with falling commodity prices and excess capacity in most industries. If we shift from deflationary fears to inflationary, there should be plenty of time to adjust your investment strategy. JMHO, Jim