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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam2482 who wrote (21009)	7/29/2001 8:36:37 PM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 24042

Hi Vicki, I'm not real big on buying in to this "the end is near - look at the paper losses".It seems apparent that if JDSU was wise in buying the needed companies that will allow them to lead in the future - then inflated prices paid with inflated stock is a relative thing. The acid test is growth after the deflation. Those acquisitions must provide growth.There is no doubt that fiber optics will continue to be a high growth market - it may not be in pulling cable or laying anymore. I believe the future growth of this market will be determined by those who can make more photons fly thru the optic cable.I have reason to believe JDSU is well into the technology advancements that will put the world of hurt on laying more cable. As metro area networks are justified by the positive cash flow of the rbocs, admittedly slow but methodical build out,and as industrial developments include FO hook up in their original building plans and yes even Joe 6 pack (who likes his computer play time to be fast at the expense of 50.00 / month ) will, in my humble opinion begin to fill up even the double layed fiber that has yet to be lit.This is a long time cycle - much like the cycles of the semi manufacturers and equip companies. Only late comers to the party short here - a full and complete potential of 8 points? This is the nervous conversation of the johnny come latelys or the, maybe I shoul've sold at the open on friday. If the max risk is 4 points on JDSU and it takes 12 months for capital gains to yield a favorable tax rate - then this is a deal.JMHO You go girl !!!! Bob

To: Sam2482 who wrote (21009)	7/29/2001 10:48:03 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Respond to of 24042

First, I never short. It is common on these threads to disparage bearish views by saying someone is a short. Recently, my bearish views on the AMAT thread were disparaged because I didn't have enough conviction to be short. So I lose either way. My questions may seem elementary, but you did not respond with the quantitative answers I was looking for. I am interested in JDSU as a long term buy. I have a small, selective list that I am looking to buy: AMAT, KLAC, NVLS, LLTC, MXIM, ALTR, and XLNX. I was considering adding JDSU to the list. Recently, I made a successful long trade. I bought JDSU at $18 and sold at $28. In retrospect, I was very lucky. I am not concerned about the recent financial report, the writoffs, or the layoffs. As a technology leader with no debt, JDSU should be able to operate at a reasonable profit. I am concerned about revenue levels in relation to the obscene amount of stock outstanding. If revenues reached $3-4B during the bubble mania buildout, doesn't $1-2B seem like a reasonable average for a capital equipment sub-contractor in what is likely to be a cyclical business? At a generous P/S of 6, the price is $6-9. If JDSU had a reverse 1 for 5 split, tomorrow, and the resulting price became $42, would you buy at $42?