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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (80986)	7/30/2001 4:12:02 PM
From: exeric2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Zeev, I agree with your conclusions about the direction of the market but am not so sure about the reasons. Just as a human generally doesn't have a clue what his individual neurons are doing, the individual neurons haven't a clue about the larger picture in which they figure. There is no consciousness of the larger human being that occasionally uses the neuron's pathway for its own ends. That is basically how I view the market. It is bigger than all of us but we are still a part of it, though a small part. It is almost impossible to understand the markets movement by tracking external events such as what is happening in Japan. It is much easier to measure what the market is doing in real time and using various parameters to come to a conclusion based only on probabilities. Its similar to predicting when a volcano will blow by measuring ground distortions and feeling small earthquakes. In the end it is not necessary to understand all the reasons that the volcano blows or to know exactly when it is going to blow. It is sufficient to know that there is a high probability it will blow quite soon. Thats all one can ask. By the way, today I went short in both my futures and IRA accounts. Regards, Exeric