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Strategies & Market Trends : MP - Market Pulse -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Madarasz who wrote (966)	7/30/2001 5:35:27 PM
From: John Madarasz	Respond to of 1328

updated NYA weekly with breakdown points. This chart is in addendum to message 966 BSH re: rising wedge breakdown measurement: stockcharts.com

To: John Madarasz who wrote (966)	7/30/2001 6:11:34 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1328

John M: The volume increases you identified took place during declines. The big boyz are not going to buy stock at higher prices and then distribute to you at lower prices during the decline. It is not always easy to identify when it is occurring, but the bottom line is that they buy low and sell high and sell high and buy low. Now they don't always buy in big or sell big at the exact high or low, but close works well and it does not always have to be done at the time of the actual low, as 18 months comes into play... As far a the 575 retrace target for the NYA (NYSE Comp) into 8/7 as with the COMPX (Naz Comp) possible target of 1890 I am less confident of those numbers as I was back on July 8th. "If" the market makes an additional accumulation move down before beginning the expected significant rally we could see the levels I suggested on 7/8. Per your concerns, I have a falling trading channel for the NYA originating from the 5/22 high. If the price action falls back to retest the support line of that channel a tag on 8/7 would be in the area of 578. A slight penetration of the support line could yield "the often seen" 78.6% retrace of the 4/4 to 5/22 rally in the area of (574.88) Per my WOW chart the support line your plotted from the 95 low connected to the 4/4 low and extended right would be tagging my 5/22 falling trading channel support line at just about 578 on Aug 7th, interesting huh...<g> So, the accumulation move down I outlined on 7/8 would not break that support line and even a move to tag the 78.6% retrace area (574.88) would only breach it slightly. The rising wedge you illustrated is not a plot I would make, but since the price action would remain above the 95 adjusted RSL (the support line you plotted) it would obviously remain within your wedge, as the support line for your wedge is well below the 95 adj support line during that time frame. Hope that helps...(It helps to be able to zoom in close on charts to both anchor trend lines exactly and to be able to measure where they will be on a given trading day daily and or intraday.) EDIT: The July 98 high has been penetrated on more than one occasion during the sideways trading action of the NYA since 99. It is exerting influence but subtly... Regards, LG