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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (8363)	7/30/2001 10:28:29 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Sorry to be so absent from the thread, but I have new silicon out now so I'm staying quite busy. Besides, this jello doesn't make for very interesting trading. I just have my short-and-holds locked in, and I'm sitting back, waiting for things to get interesting. I suspect September-October will bring a bit of a spark back to trading - it usually does - but we'll have to see. It astounds me how, every year, sentiment can be so bullish heading into the absolute worst seasonal period. (I'm sure you know September and October are the only two months which average negative returns, even with the 1987 anomaly removed.) You'd think people would learn, but that would require a memory of events nearly a year old, or studies going back several years - all ancient history, of course. If I haven't mentioned them, have a peek at KSS and TEK. KSS has formed up a nice H&S on the weeklies and is about to test a multi-year support line. Either it violates the H&S or violates the support line; place a bet, and you'll have well-defined risk/reward setup. TEK has just given up (and retested and failed from below) a shelf at $25. Also, I can't remember if I mentioned this or not, but SCH gave up THE support line (several weeks ago) for the entire bull, going back to the 1980s. What does that tell you about the long-term health of Wall Street? BC

To: AllansAlias who wrote (8363)	7/31/2001 2:31:36 AM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Check out da HUI on the dailies. It may be in a contracting triangle, which would say a reversal upward is very near. The price is right into the apex, just as the support line for the last year is coming up to meet it. The support line is further validated by the fact that its parallel formed a nice channel whose break marked the May 2001 blowoff, and which provided key resistance when, after prices fell back into the channel, it was retested from below. geocities.com Also note the extreme long-term significance of the low 60s on a weekly. Today's move just below the support TL is probably just a headfake, to be reversed by week's end. The interesting thing is that HUI is usually only strong if there are a) inflationary pressures or b) market turmoil. I don't think inflationary pressures will be a problem for a long time; deflation is the real enemy (and that's even worse than inflation). So, if HUI is ready to reverse, is the market ready to get downwardly mobile? I doubt that such extrapolations are of much use, but - 'tis the season... BC