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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: isopatch who wrote (92900)	7/31/2001 1:05:29 AM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Where are we right now in the PM sector? To be honest, don't use the XAU. Prefer the HUI because it's a pure PM data set. We stabilized and launched some minor rallies from my 1st fib measurement at HUI 62-3. Am looking for the next pivot point to occur at about 57. And my very ST read is we're headed there forthwith. Maybe even this week. On the bullion chart: futures.tradingcharts.com Some chart mavens are a little more ST optimistic than I am. True, we're in an area of some support here in the mid 260s. But I don't think it will hold. Problems for me are: 1. Not seeing enough bearishness in sentiment yet OR 2. Not close to the the turn around I'm looking for in the COTs. When those, admitedly subjective tools<g>, and other more proprietary work provides the evidence, I'll have more confidence we've put in enough of a bottom to support the next Intermediate (1 month or greater) rally in the PM stocks. So, looks like an immediate test of gold $260/oz to me. If that dovetails with 57 on the HUI, 50% retracement of the previous rally, then, the moment of truth will be the character of the rally that follows. Like to see better momentum and internals than we got on bounces off the 62-3 pivot point. But even worse case, were we to wash out and test the cycle lows in the $250s in gold AND the .618 fib retracement at HUI 51? It wouldn't impact my view of the very bullish LT fundamentals for the PM sector. Per previous posts here recently, am currently very light in my PM positions. But, will be a very aggressive buyer were a washout fueled by a big run of the sell stops to occur, in the PM arena. And one more, very contrarian thought that I don't see the gurus, talking heads or analysts even entertaining. The fact that IMO, such a selloff would be the most bullish event possible for the LT!<G> Consider this... The only way the really big money can position themselves in the size they need, considering the small capitalization of this entire sector, is to panic a lot of current longs out of their positions BEFORE the a new Bull Market in gold really gets rolling. As Morpheus said to Neo in the Matrix flick, "Time is always against us". And that's true for ole Isopatch, EVEN in the summer. So packin' it in for the night.<g> Best regards to all, Isopatch

To: isopatch who wrote (92900)	7/31/2001 9:45:26 AM
From: el_gaviero	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

Hi Iso, re: allocation My basic question is this: where is the exit? If the dollar stays high, American industry gets driven into the dirt. If the dollar falls, foreigners will probably pull assets out of the USA, and cause all sorts of problems for the American consumer, not to mention others, such as the Japanese, who need a low yen to create a market for their products. Seems to me that the most politically viable solution is inflation. Maybe this realization is behind the considerable injections of liquidity that Alan Greenspan has been pouring into the system. Greenspan’s strategy in fact seems to be to try to keep everything stable, until the manufacturing sector recovers, & consumers get their personal balance sheets back in order. But the status quo looks hard to maintain. Just this morning it was reported that personal income rose by an amount less than personal spending. But, for the sake of argument, assume Greenspan keeps us on the knife-edge between inflation & deflation, a rising & falling dollar. Even so, we are still going to need economic growth. But then, once growth resumes, we run into energy constraints -- making the prospect of growth another blind alley -- another callejon sin salida. Anyway, I’m a little more than one-half cash, one-fourth precious metals, the rest in stuff held forever -- e.g., Exxon stock held since 1980, which if I sell could comfortably put my son though a good private college, except that the belt-way mafia would make off with a third of it (or more in a good year). I’m nervous as heck about my position in precious metals -- fully prepared to admit being a fool. But as I say, I don’t see the exit. I sense that we are in a frame of mind (more exactly: in a political impasse) such that we are going to drift along, and let events resolve economic difficulties. With respect to precious metals, for me it comes down to risk / reward. If dead wrong, I lose 10 percent, maybe even 20. On the other hand, if we are going to let events solve our problems, we might need gold ------ i.e., insurance , i.e. a seatbelt-- which isn't needed ‘til it's needed, then it's needed real bad.