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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (39502)	7/31/2001 10:13:59 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

some tidbit views on the macro economy: - wanna see inflation? look at real estate - productivity might be way overstated in this new economy - debt is the 100-lb ball&chain dragged by most households - debt is the 10-ton ball&chain dragged by most businesses - the tax cut checks will buy beer and a couple shirts - the rich tax brackets will change in 5 years - energy costs are down nicely - solar rebates have risen sharply recently in Calif,Ariz - Y2K absorbed three years worth of capital spending - without much notice, the USdollar has come down considerably I believe Alan GreenGrinch will not talk about it but he is waiting for REAL ESTATE to come down to earth RE has been supplying a wellspring for indebted spending he always talks about asset inflation in SanFrancisco, real estate has begun to turn down but not much elsewhere, maybe WashingtonDC so the hightech center and the telecom center have been hurt foreign economies are toppling I read in Business Week that reduced US imports are a great sign I COULDNT DISAGREE MORE sure, that is fixing the GDP in a queer way but our US imports keep the world economy humming take that away, and we have foreign economic turmoil that is what we have now -- turmoil, deterioration perversely, a strong sign of world health is US trade deficits and imports they are the lifeblood of the post-war world economy if not present, then a worldwide recession is almost inevitable all this historically unprecedented Federal Reserve increase in money supply is gonna cause BIG PROBLEMS down the road THE ONLY THING TO FEAR IS THE FED ITSELF it is not the Federal Reserve anymore it is the World Reserve the gas peddle is hit too hard, or else the brake peddle is hit too hard it has overriden the free market equilibrium system by 2002-03 it will be clear that growth is happening too quickly again just like 1994, we will see a stupid Fed raising rates we live in an interlocked world economy like it or not, that is the reality but I run on at the mouth / Jim