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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Allen Furlan who wrote (12885)	7/31/2001 4:20:13 PM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 78748

The way I figure it, if you could buy MLN at 8, to hold it for four years you would need to get about 50% appreciation to make it a good speculation. So it would have to be worth $12. But to be worth $12, the Nikkei would have to be at about 17,000. or more than 40% above its current level. I guess the upside is that you cannot lose in nominal dollars, but in the event of a dollar decline or renewed inflation, you would lose, having received only a 25% gain, or about 5% compounded, for four years. That's a long holding period for very little gain, too. I am holding a pretty good sized position in Merrill Lynch euro warrants. When I look at MLN it makes me uneasy to be trying to bet against Merrill Lynch.