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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric L who wrote (45055)	7/31/2001 8:27:08 PM
From: tinkershaw	Respond to of 54805

EMC Lengthens Market Share Lead in Networked Information Storage I haven't a clue. I have seen EMC use misleading data in the past and their last two earnings report do not give confidence that anything in the market is settled so I don't put much stock into this. Nevertheless, I do think we are gaining more and more evidence, despite the optimizm many of us held regarding NTAP, that storage plays (perhaps with the exception of BRCD which to my understanding has potential to really have a solid lock-in should SANs ever cross the chasm due to the software management in their product and its incompatiblity with anything else (kind of like an early Cisco)) are royalty games. This makes NTAP much less desirable. Nevertheless, we may see a rekindling of tornadic winds in this sector and be able to lightly hold such companies again. But given the current market estimates I have for NTAP, and they include an aggressive 31% revenue CAGR through 2010 (but a very pessimistic 2001 and 2002 with slower growth of 20% resuming in 2003), I don't find NTAP particularly undervalued at this time. Competition has certainly eaten into its cash producing power and their are too many uncertainties in the technology for me to have enormous confidence in NTAP or EMC at the moment. DAFs, if successful, could possibly change this. But DAFs is certainly pre-chasm. Tinker