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To: Victor Lazlo who wrote (129407)	7/31/2001 9:39:52 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Victor: I agree. (1) The so-called surplus need not be spent -- it is never going to arrive. The check I received in the mail will require $40 billion in new government debt next week -- some "surplus". (BTW, I am not getting all of it :)) (2) The consumer is over-extended and home equity loans are not going to solve the problem. (3) The employment picture is falling apart and consumers are probably near the end of their shopping spree for everything. (4) The international economy is being shown up for what it is -- a faltering mess. (5) The dollar is unrealistically valued and nobody has a clue what to do about it because the consequences are so negative. (5) The current account deficit is catching up with us. (6) The stock market is overvalued -- KLAC put in a nice little report, and is trading at 55 times next years earnings, assuming no further slowdown, by which I mean to say it is already overpriced. (7) The investment "community" assumes that a recovery is in the making and is in no shape to adjust to the looming reality of the recession that is taking shape where recovery was thought to be assured. The market has priced in a fairly robust recovery, not an oncoming recession.