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Technology Stocks : EMC How high can it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gus who wrote (12942)	8/1/2001 8:27:58 AM
From: jad	Respond to of 17183

Goldman Sachs analyst Laura Conigliaro says that EMC's comment at a pre-analyst meeting dinner that July demand was similar to April could imply that Goldman's forecast of a sequential revenue decline is too pessimistic, EMC's backend-loaded qtr makes it too early to call. from briefing

To: Gus who wrote (12942)	8/2/2001 2:48:38 AM
From: Gus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17183

More industry research numbers.... 2000 SAN MARKET - Gartner SAN Revenue SAN shipments Average Share Sales (units) EMC 38.8% $1.88B 11% Compaq 28.5% 1.38B 49% HWP 10.4% 502M 7% IBM 4.5% 219M 2% HDS 3.4% 165M 1% SUNW 3.0% 147M 14% DELL 1.4% 67M 3% Others 10.0% 484M 13% Total 100.0% $4.84B 100% CPQ shipped more than 24,000 SANS to generate $1.38B in sales. Average Compaq SAN revenue is $57,500. If CPQ's 24,000 SANs equate to 49% of units deployed then EMC's 11% of units deployed equate to around 5,388 SANs. $1.88B/5,388 SANs = $348,923 average EMC SAN revenue. Again, average CPQ SAN revenue of $57,500 vs average EMC SAN revenue of $348,923. 2000 NAS MARKET - Gartner Share Sales NTAP 49.8% $720M EMC 36.3% 524M Quantum 4.0% 56M Others* 9.9% 139M Total 100.0% $1.4B *Assumed $139M equally divided between Compaq, Dell, Auspex, Procom, HWP, Maxtor and NSS (HDS subcontractor), or around $20M in NAS revenue each. 2000 COMBINED SAN/NAS MARKET - Gartner vs IDC Gartner Share IDC Share EMC $ 2.40B 38.5% $ 2.01B 30.5% Compaq 1.41B 22.6% 799M 12.1% NTAP 720M 11.5% 904M 13.7% HWP 522M 8.4% 416M 6.3% IBM 219M 3.5% 442M 6.7% HDS 165M 2.6% + + SUNW 147M 2.4% 647M 9.8% DELL 67M 1.1% + + Others 590M 9.4% 1.38B 20.9% Total $6.24B 100% $6.60B 100.0% +included in OTHERS .....Apparently, it depends on how you look at the numbers. Roger Cox, the chief analyst at Gartner who authored the reports in question and endorsed both press releases, says the EMC figures differ from the ones Compaq cites. He says the EMC numbers, which from the caption on the accompanying chart look as if they only count RAID boxes, in fact include all of the underlying gear required to install a SAN -- not only the RAID arrays but the Fibre Channel switches, adapters, and other kit EMC OEM's from vendors such as McData Corp. and Brocade Communications Systems Inc. when installing a SAN based on RAID. Conversely, Compaq’s figures, which sound like they include all of the SAN pieces, actually include only the RAID devices shipped, Cox says.... byteandswitch.com ....Just as important, it says, is the fact that EMC is the only vendor to have credible offerings in both the SAN and NAS market. No other vendor exceeded 2% market share in both these markets in 2000, says EMC.... searchstorage.techtarget.com