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Technology Stocks : Network Appliance -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BirdDog who wrote (8793)	8/1/2001 11:58:08 AM
From: Sully-	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10934

Network Appliance Leaps as Storage Sector Surges By TSC Staff 8/1/01 11:40 AM ET Network Appliance (NTAP:Nasdaq - news - commentary) was up 23.6% in late morning and several other storage sector issues were higher. Wit SoundView reportedly issued a bullish note on the stock, saying it is more comfortable that Network Appliance will meet its numbers. On Tuesday, First Union began coverage of the company with a market perform rating. Other stocks on the rise in the sector include Emulex (EMLX:Nasdaq - news - commentary), up 12.7%; Brocade (BRCD:Nasdaq - news - commentary), up 12.6%; and McData (MCDT:Nasdaq - news - commentary), ahead 10.6%.

To: BirdDog who wrote (8793)	8/1/2001 1:23:59 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 10934

Wazupwidis? Up 20%+ this fine mornin.........just normal daily volatility?.......random motion?........let's see now.....step back and actually think before acting.......every CC I've listened to said inventories may be clearing, but end-demand still sucks bigtime.....everyone hoping (hope is the operative word) for demand to pick up by yearend.....consumer confidence falling......consumer spending propped up by yet more debt (home equity loans to pay for vacations)...... Quote of the week: David Rickey, president and chief executive of Applied Micro Circuits Corp.: "We think we've hit the bottom. Our backlog is now close to zero, and we are seeing a lot less tendency toward cancellations, because there is nothing left to cancel. There is nowhere to go but up, but it sure is a bummer about the $1 billion in lost orders." Things are so bad now, there is nowhere to go but up?.......wasn't everyone using that line during the January rally?.....how soon we forget, allowing wishful thinking to sweep us off our feet It's still a bear market (this is a recording). In bear markets, "Sell the Rally" is the guiding principle, everything else is just details. In this bear market, there have been 3 50% rallies off intermediate bottoms, for the SOX. The last bottom was 453, and a 50% rally takes us to 680, and we are almost there. The last 3 times turned out to be selling opportunities (or shorting opportunities, for reckless shortterm gamblers like me). stockcharts.com[h,a]dahlnimy[df][pb50!f][vc60][iUa12,26,9] So, when do I lighten up on the 03C20 options I recently bought when the stock hit 13 and 11? (didn't quite reach 9, my next buypoint, that would have been nice) 1. Let's review what happened in other NTAP rallies: 4-00 thru 10-00: 41.1 to 152.8 = +272% 12-00: 44.8 to 89.6 = +100% 4-01: 11.4 to 29.5 = +159% The first one of those rallies, the long one in the summer of 2000, should be considered part of a topping formation, not a bear rally. So, we should expect at least a doubling off the recent 9.55 low, which gets us to 19. A triple would be a stretch. 2. Since the 10-00 top, the stock has been unable to sustain any move above its 50-day moving average, which is now at 15. If you think the downtrend is still intact, then selling whenever the stock touches that 50DMA is a good move. 3. The double top in May, at 29, should be strong resistance. That would represent a triple off the recent low. 4. briefly, in Mid-March, and again in late-May/early-June, the stock found support at 19. This may be resistance on the way up. My plan: I expect this rally to fail, somewhere between 19 and 29. For now, I will just wait and watch. As long as we set new highs each day (above the previous day's high), I'll continue holding. When we stall (= don't set new highs for several days), I'll consider selling some. If we hit 29, I'll have sold at least half my LEAPs. I may sell more, as I would really prefer to hold the 2004s (now available), and I'm willing to gamble we get one more decline, to retest recent lows. If I sell all I now hold, I'll buy back using the exact same plan I used before (dollar-cost average, in 2-point increments between 13 and 5). The only difference is, I'll buy the 2004s instead of 2003s. 20s aren't available yet on the 2004s, so I may have to buy the 15s.