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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (897)	8/1/2001 5:12:36 PM
From: scott_jiminez	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95432

<<... the ML bounce is probably temporary.>> plus.... <<The situation in chip land hasn't changed. Still way too much capacity and no demand. That isn't likely to change anytime soon. If anything the capacity situation will become more serious in the coming months as more fabs begin production ramps. The only reason demand deterioration is subsiding is that there isn't any demand left. >> plus.... <<I doubt that today's rally will have legs. The SOX already pushed above the upper Bollinger Band today. What is going to keep us moving higher when there really is no evidence of a recovery at hand? Analyst's upgrades are nice when you have as many semiconductor long positions as I do right now but there is no justifiable reason for the upgrades. >> ====================== Let's go back to the merry days of yore. Of course I'm referring to JJ's downgrade of the chip equipment sector in the spring/summer of 2000. The following certainly would not be a stretch, nor that much paraphrasing. It would be as close to a verbatim recapitulation of the posting tone at the time as one could find: 1. <<... the JJ-induced rout in the SOXX is probably temporary.>> 2. << The situation in chip land hasn't changed. Still way too little capacity and huge demand. That isn't likely to change anytime soon. If anything the capacity situation will become more serious in the coming months as more fabs run at 100%. The only reason the excessive demand is subsiding is that there isn't any fab space left. >> 3. << I doubt that today's rout will have legs. The SOXX already spiked below the lower Bollinger Band today. What is going to keep us moving lower when there really is no evidence of a slow-down at hand? Analyst's downgrades can be painful when you have as many semiconductor long positions as I do right now...especially when there is no justifiable reason for the downgrades. >> ====================== Are contributors to this thread aware that SDRAM is extremely cheap these days? I pose this question because, insofar as developing prudent investment skills based on recent (last 1-2 years) experience, many participants appear to be in dire need of a significant short-term memory upgrade. TTID.

To: Gottfried who wrote (897)	8/7/2001 12:20:14 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95432

Do you or anyone else know of a site that shows dollars invested by VC's by quarter going back say 20 years? It dawned on me that this might be the best indicator of investor sentiment and it should be a leading indicator for tech investing since new VC dollars are spent on equipment and salaries that lead to products and higher sales. I believe the market crashed soon after one VC here in the Silicon Valley gave back $1B ( or some large number of dollars) as it had nothing good to invest in... The market was down and they didn't see anything to turn it around to invest in so they decided it was better to give people their money back. That fund that did this probably had the best return of any VC in Calif the last 18 months... Anyway, it would be interesting to plot VC dollars, change in VC dollars vs the NASDAQ and the S&P500. thanks Kirk