To: Bill Wexler who wrote (8201 ) 8/3/2001 6:53:22 PM From: Bill Wexler Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 10293 Reiterate STRONG SELL/SHORT SELL...IFGM 8/03/2001 Infogrames Aims for Top Score, But May Miss Revenue Target By Jesse Eisinger Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal Say a big number and see your stock rise. Infogrames , the French video game maker, said Wednesday that it would raise its revenue to one billion euros ($881 million) in fiscal 2002 ending next June, and investors thought that was tres chouette . With joysticks in hand, investors rewarded the stock with a 13% rise in the next two days. Investors, excitable for any growth story, are laying down big bets on the coming boom in video game sales linked to the introduction of new consoles from Sony and Microsoft . But making projections and achieving them are two different things. And Infogrames' track record on the achieving part isn't impressive. For the past two years, the company has fallen short of its revenue targets. In the latest year, ended June 30, Infogrames was supposed to hit 750 million euros, but CEO Bruno Bonnell brought the figure down to about 690 million euros in interviews with the French media about four weeks ago. Whoops. On Wednesday, the company reported sales of 672.2 million euros, blaming delayed game launches. Infogrames also projected a positive operating profit margin of about 5% for the current year, fiscal 2002, compared with estimated negative operating margins of about 7% to 9% for fiscal 2001. That would be a pretty big swing. As is a common European practice, Infogrames issued only a preliminary report with few details. Investors will have to wait for a profit and loss statement, a balance sheet and a cash flow statement. (Why do investors take this from their companies?) Infogrames executives didn't return calls seeking comment. But Infogrames said in a press release that it expects to report an operating loss for the year ended June 30 of about 50 million to 60 million euros and a net loss of about 100 million euros, including some exceptional items. The real question is what the cash flow is. Negative, yes, but how negative? Bears estimate it around 120 million to 140 million euros. And what is the company's cash position? Infogrames had a net cash position at the end of June 2000, but the suspicion now is that it has more debt than cash. The company wouldn't say during a conference call. The Infogrames predictions are particularly bold because the company doesn't have any blockbuster launches lined up for the Christmas season, critics say. The next big game the company looks likely to launch is called Stuntman and it isn't due until the second half of the fiscal year. Investors are making a huge bet in particular on Microsoft's Xbox, which is supposed to launch in Europe in March. Investors have a lot riding on the Xbox being on time. They should be more concerned with the black box that is Infogrames.