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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tinkershaw who wrote (45084)	8/1/2001 3:18:09 PM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Tinker, I'd like to add a couple of caveats to your scheme of buying in a recession such as we have now. (It may not be a recession in neckties or cabbage but it sure is for what we are interested in). 1. If we can't convince the spouse that this is a good time to buy and a good stock to be buying, then probably our case is not strong enough to justify it. 2. Wait until we feel comfortable. What makes one person comfortable, e.g. the "feel" of the market, i.e. the stock has been rising for some time or staying still while other stocks dropped., make not make the rigorous rule person comfortable. Half of the value of this thread is defining "comfort" exactly, i.e. getting a good valuation metric. I certainly agree with your idea that a recession is the general time to buy and do extremely well thereafter; the question remains at what price in the recession. On the SEBL thread 9 days ago people I respect said SEBL should sell in the twenties or teens. That agreed with my valuation. But the stock is selling briskly in the mid thirties. Who is buying? Maybe it's young people with 401K plans who count on the long haul to make them fortunes and are not too careful about the price since they can't spend the money now anyway.

To: tinkershaw who wrote (45084)	8/1/2001 10:05:38 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Tinker, I had forgotten about the Oracle case study and want to thank you for reminding me of it. I haven't read it yet, but I wonder about the following: However, [Moore] did cover the steps to take during a normal recessionary environment. If Oracle is to be the guide, even through such catastrophees, the gorilla rewards the long-term investor handsomely. My concern is that his impression about that is written in two versions of the manual, both of which also said that gorillas are always undervalued. That doesn't reconcile with his most recent statement that despite the current downturn in the performance of high tech companies, he thinks cash is the better investment for the time being. It appears that he has changed his mind about valuations at least somewhat, in which case he might put the Oracle case study in different light in the upcoming version. --Mike Buckley